In Tamil Nadu, where the bipolar political architecture has remained largely impervious to outsiders for half a century, the 'done deal' of the political newbie Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK)-led government dissolved into a midnight crisis as the arithmetic faltered. As it dawned on Saturday, the swearing-in ceremony remained in limbo, exposing the profound fragility of a political movement built on charisma rather than institutionalised alliances.
On Friday evening, Vijay made his third visit to the Lok Bhavan to call on Governor Rajendra Arlekar—a sequence that illustrates a mounting sense of desperation in the TVK camp and a calculated resistance on the side of the governor’s office. He had secured the support of both the Communist parties, the CPI and the CPI(M). According to a Communist leader, the VCK had also decided to support the TVK early on Friday.
For the TVK, it is a total patchwork of the traditional secular front, which was once headed by the DMK in Tamil Nadu. The TVK, as of now, has 108 MLAs, five from the Congress, and two each from the CPI and CPI(M). Despite successfully wooing these established players, Vijay remains two seats short. This deficit is more than a rounding error, which has turned into a legal and psychological barrier.
The IUML flip-flop
The volatility of the current deadlock was underscored by the rapid retreat of the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML). Early Friday, it appeared the IUML’s two legislators would provide the final bridge to the majority. The party even released a statement that seemed to bless the transition, saying, “both members of the Indian Union Muslim League in the Assembly will support all actions taken by the Honourable Governor to form the government.” However, the narrative shifted by nightfall on Friday.
In a stark denial, the IUML reiterated its unwavering alignment with the DMK, effectively pulling the rug from under Vijay. This backtrack suggests that the old guard of the Dravidian fold is exerting immense pressure on its junior partners to prevent a total collapse of the existing political order.
However, sources in the IUML told THE WEEK that the TVK approached one of their factions and forced their leader to give the letter, which again the source described as a “forceful act.” The IUML had, on the other side, said that it will only extend support on the floor when there is a floor test.
VCK’s delay and the 118-seat standoff
The VCK chief Thirumavalavan, who had reportedly agreed to extend support to the TVK based on a “power sharing deal”, went silent. Sources say that he held a series of meetings with TVK, DMK leadership, and AIADMK leader Edappadi K. Palaniswami while Congress leader Kharge dialled him from Delhi.
Sources, indicate the price of VCK’s support is nothing less than the deputy chief minister post for Thirumavalavan and that he can contest from the Trichy (East) constituency which will be vacated by Vijay.
Vijay’s offer of the local administration portfolio has clearly failed to bridge the gap, highlighting the tension between the TVK’s cinematic mass appeal and the hard-nosed transactional requirements of coalition politics. However, by noon on Saturday, exhaustive arrangements have been made at the VCK’s office at Ashok Nagar in Chennai as Vijay and Thirumavalavan are set to meet anytime soon.
Tamil Nadu currently sits in a state of suspended animation. The transition from cinema to cabinet has collided head-on with the ruthless machinery of parliamentary procedure. While Vijay’s 108 seats represent a historic debut, he is now learning that winning an election is a matter of mass appeal, but forming a government is a matter of manual manoeuvring.