Nearly 30 per cent of the Muslim minority population in West Bengal has surprised many political pundits, with a significant portion voting against the Trinamool Congress (TMC). Votes were split between Congress, the CPI(M)-Indian Secular Front (ISF) alliance, the Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP), and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM). Surprisingly, the anti-incumbency wave also saw the BJP gaining a small percentage of Muslim minority votes.
“Seven to eight per cent of Trinamool Congress (TMC) votes have shifted away, some going to other parties and there could have been some going to the BJP also in certain pockets,” said Professor Zaad Mahmood, a political science professor at Presidency University.
Prof. Mahmood further explained that the split in Muslim minority votes made way for CPI(M) to gain one seat in the Domkal constituency and Congress to bag two seats in the Farraka and Raninagar constituencies, all in Murshidabad district.
Political analyst Udayan Bandyopadhyay said that there has been a significant loss in Muslim minority votes. “Minorities have voted differently this time since independence,” he said.
“Many have voted for the BJP in seats like East Midnapore and East Bardhaman district, where minorities are significant in population.” This voting pattern of minorities favouring the BJP is a shift, despite a call given by Suvendu Adhikari that the party "doesn't want minority votes", with their focus on Hindu votes, says Bandyopadhyay.
This fractured mandate of the minorities has also acted as a catalyst for TMC's defeat. In North 24 Parganas, with 33 seats, the BJP secured 24 compared to five in 2021. In South 24 Parganas, with 31 seats, the BJP got 10 seats compared to no seats in this region in 2021.
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In largely minority-dominated districts in North and Central Bengal, such as Malda, the BJP won six of 12 seats compared to four in 2021. In Murshidabad, the BJP got eight of 22 seats compared to two seats in 2021, and four of nine seats compared to two in 2021 in Uttar Dinajpur. The TMC had secured 35 of the 43 seats in these three districts in 2021.
“There is a 5 per cent difference in vote share between the BJP and TMC, which made a huge difference in Muslim minority votes and the consolidation of majority Hindu votes against the TMC,” said Prof. Mahmood.
The BJP secured a 45.5 per cent vote share in these elections, while the TMC secured a 40.8 per cent vote share. In 2021, the TMC had a 48.5 per cent vote share, while the BJP had a 38.4 per cent vote share. The BJP gained a 7.1 per cent vote share, while the TMC saw a decline of 7.7 per cent vote share since 2021.