The exit polls for the Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections are out and actor-turned-politician Vijay, whose Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam made its electoral debut, has a lot to cheer. Despite being formed over a year ago, most exit polls give TVK good chances.
While the Vote Vibe projects AIADMK to win with 114–124 seats, DMK is predicted to win 103–113 seats. Vijay’s party, the survey predicted, will win between 4 and 10 seats. According to the Matrize survey, the DMK-led alliance will win in Tamil Nadu with 22 to 132 seats, while AIADMK, aligned with NDA, could secure 87 to 100 seats. TVK is estimated to win around 10 to 12 seats.
Praja Poll predictions are along the same lines. DMK could get between 148-168 seats while AIADMK’s run will end with 61-81 seats. As for TVK, it could get between one and nine seats.
The Exit poll predictions by the People's Insight survey calculate DMK to win between 120 and 140 seats, while AIADMK will get between 60 and 70 seats. TVK, the survey pegs, will win between 30 and 40.
P-Marq has given DMK and allies 125-145 seats; AIADMK and allies 65-85 seats, and actor Vijay's TVK 16-26 seats. Kamakhya Analytics has given DMK and allies 78-95 seats; AIADMK and allies 68-84 seats, and TVK and allies 67-81 seats.
However, the most dramatic prediction came from NDTV-Axis My India, which projected TVK to win between 98 and 120 seats, forecasting the fledgling party to become a major political power in Tamil Nadu. It also gave TVK roughly 35% vote share, totally dismissing the political space of the AIADMK-BJP combine.
As per the Axis My India survey, such a stupendous debut in the political arena is not common in the Indian political sphere, and can be compared with the emergence of cinematic stars turned political leaders like MGR and NTR.
Now, this is where things get exciting. Though his campaign was a weaker one compared to those of DMK and AIADMK, Vijay, many believe, has managed to win the strong backing of youth voters. Ever since the election was announced, Vijay has campaigned very few times, even after he filed nominations in Perambur and Trichy East.
If the predictions, especially that of Axis My India, are to be considered, TVK managed to win anti-incumbency votes that should have gone to the AIADMK. The exit polls also hint that Vijay could have received the votes of most first-generation voters and women.
Axis My India claim that 68% of first-time voters (aged 18-19) and 59% of the voters (aged 20-29) voted for TVK. The wish for "change" is cited as the main motive by 35% of voters and even 77% of TVK voters. The party is successful in reaching out to OBC, SC groups, and minorities, as well as urban areas.
Most predictions are based on the assumption that Vijay’s transition from a superstar to a political leader seems to have resonated strongly with a section of voters disillusioned with established parties.
Vijay’s campaign strategy was also different. He made clear that his party is aiming for more than just a political debut. He celebrated his long-standing kinship with the people, stating he had already lived in every household for three decades and that the party is simply the formalisation of a pre-existing bond. He also promised a leadership that prioritises secularism and integrity over financial gains.
Although exit polls are usually taken with a grain of salt, one can observe that Vijay has already overcome the image of a "new entrant." Regardless of whether he will become a mere kingmaker in a hung assembly or whether he will fizzle out, his impact on Tamil Nadu's future appears historic.
The mood in the TVK camp is also upbeat. TCK Executive Committee Chief Coordinator KA Sengottaiyan has expressed confidence that his party will achieve a strong debut in the elections, despite exit polls predicting that the incumbent DMK-led front will retain power. He predicts that the scale of public response would astonish the entire nation.
Vijay has also convened a crucial meeting with candidates of his party on Thursday. The word is that the meeting is expected to focus on post-poll assessments and preparations ahead of the counting of votes.
That said, political commentators believe Vijay, who is facing his first election after founding the party, has no chance of winning so many constituencies. They believe such predictions have been made based on the large crowds that gather to watch Vijay. Then there is Tamil Nadu's complex caste equations, regional dynamics, and entrenched party structures that could hamper TVK's run.