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PM Modi's 816-seat gambit: Behind mid-poll move to corner women's votes, bridge North-South gap

If the Lok Sabha expansion is passed between April 16 and 18, it will be fresh in public discourse as voters in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal go to the polls

Prime Minister Narendra Modi | PTI

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has used campaign rallies in the ongoing state elections to foreground two major legislative issues—women’s reservation and delimitation—both scheduled to be taken up during a special three-day session of the Parliament from April 16-18.

At a rally in Kerala, Modi said that the government plans to expand the Lok Sabha from 543 to 816 seats. This expansion is being positioned as necessary for implementing the women’s reservation law, which provides 33 per cent reservation in Parliament and state assemblies. He also sought to reassure the southern states that delimitation would not reduce their number of seats.

The timing is politically relevant. Assam, Kerala and Puducherry vote on April 9, before the session. Tamil Nadu votes on April 23, and West Bengal on April 23 and 29, after the session ends.

If the legislation is passed between April 16 and 18, it will be fresh in public discourse as voters in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal go to the polls. These are states where the BJP is trying to expand its presence.

The Opposition parties had questioned the timing of this special session, but the government went ahead with its plan.

Delimitation has been a sensitive issue in the South for years. States such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Telangana have controlled population growth more effectively than many northern states.

There is concern that any redistribution of seats based on the current population will increase the representation of more populous northern states at their expense. Modi addressed this concern directly, stating that no seats would be reduced in Kerala or Tamil Nadu.

The Congress has challenged this claim. According to Jairam Ramesh, even if no state loses seats in absolute terms, a proportional expansion will widen the gap between larger and smaller states.

He pointed out that the current difference in Lok Sabha seats between Uttar Pradesh and Kerala is 60, which could rise to 90 after expansion. The party argues that this would weaken the political weight of southern states.

On women’s reservation, Modi’s messaging has been more direct. At a rally in Cooch Behar, he said the 33 per cent quota would be implemented by the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. This is aimed at women voters—particularly in West Bengal, where the BJP is trying to challenge the strong support base of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.

Opposition parties have raised procedural and ethical concerns. They argue that holding a special parliamentary session during an ongoing election violates the Model Code of Conduct.

They have called for any discussion on constitutional amendments to be deferred until after polling ends on April 29.

There is also a legal question. The women’s reservation law passed in 2023 is already linked to delimitation. Any attempt to separate the two for earlier implementation would require another constitutional amendment.

The larger issue is the overlap between governance and electoral strategy. Two significant structural reforms—the redistribution of parliamentary representation and reservation for women—are being pushed through in a short session that falls between phases of voting.

By pushing the session through the election campaign, it means not all political parties will be able to extricate themselves from the campaign.

Moreover, as the session is being held at short notice, and with the Opposition busy, it may not give them sufficient time to mount a campaign around their concerns, some analysts felt.

If passed during April 16-18, the government gains a clear campaign advantage. It can present the move as delivery on long-pending reforms in states that are yet to vote.

How much these issues will resonate among the women voters is yet to be seen, but it will allow the BJP to signal intent, particularly to these women voters.