Did AIADMK hand tough seats to smaller NDA partners? The many calculations involved EXPLAINED

On March 25 , as the leaders of the NDA partners walked into the AIADMK headquarters at Avvai Shanmugam Salai in Royapettah, Chennai, the mood was upbeat. AIADMK cadres and supporters of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) cheered. Everyone, including PMK leader Dr Anbumani Ramadoss, BJP state president Nainar Nagendran, and AMMK leader T. T. V. Dhinakaran, was all smiles. They sat beside AIADMK General Secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami, popularly known as EPS, as he began reading out the long list of seats allocated to the alliance partners to fight the assembly general elections scheduled to be held on 23 April.

As per the final pact agreed among the NDA partners, the AIADMK will contest 169 constituencies out of the 234 assembly segments, as it is the larger partner in the alliance. The second-largest partner, the BJP, has been allocated 27 constituencies, while the PMK will contest 18 assembly segments, and the AMMK will contest 11 constituencies. Junior partners like the IJK and the TMC have secured two and five seats respectively. The numbers sound fine. But the AIADMK leadership—which had been talking about forming a “mega alliance” since 2023, even before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and before leaving the NDA—ensured that it retained the authority and control in finalising the seat-sharing deal. Although EPS resisted the key demands of the BJP and other parties, he also made sure that they were allocated the most challenging seats, where victory could be nearly impossible.

At least 13 constituencies of sitting DMK ministers and one constituency of the present assembly speaker, where the DMK is strong, have been allocated to the alliance partners. While the BJP had sought some of the assembly segments that are popular temple towns, and a few seats for its popular faces like former state chief K. Annamalai, EPS made sure that he had the leverage over the decision to allocate the constituencies. The BJP had actually sought the Coimbatore North and Singanallur assembly segments in the Coimbatore Lok Sabha region. The BJP's sitting MLA, Vanathi Srinivasan, will now contest from Coimbatore South. But Singanallur, one of the semi-urban constituencies with major businesses and young voters, is where Annamalai had shown his strength in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP had sought the seat for Annamalai. However, EPS made it a point not to allocate more than one assembly segment to the BJP in the Coimbatore Lok Sabha region. Vanathi, being a sitting MLA and also known to work closely with AIADMK heavyweight S. P. Velumani in Coimbatore, secured her seat.

On the face of it, it might seem that the BJP got the maximum number of seats, and at least seven more than what it secured in the 2021 election. The numbers may be high, but the BJP has got the most challenging seats. "We were looking for urban constituencies where there are elite voters, and also the most advantageous seats in western Tamil Nadu. But what we have got now is not an advantageous deal for us," a senior BJP office-bearer told The Week. And there is yet another undercurrent that played out in the seat-sharing deal. The present BJP chief, Nainar Nagendran, who hails from Tirunelveli in the far south, managed to secure safe seats. Nagendran is likely to shift his constituency from Tirunelveli to Sattur. Furthermore, the BJP has been allotted three seats in the Pudukkottai constituency, and Tiruchirappalli (Trichy) West, the fiefdom of the DMK's Trichy strongman K. N. Nehru, where its winning probability is very meagre.

Again, for the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), led by Dr Anbumani Ramadoss, the number is only 18—fewer than its 2021 numbers. While the differences between the senior Ramadoss and Anbumani and internal squabbles in the family have led to a reduction in the number of seats for the PMK, AIADMK insiders link this to a drop in the PMK's vote share. "The only reason for our leader deciding to have the PMK in the alliance is because of the Vanniyar votes in some of the constituencies in Salem, particularly his Edappadi constituency. The Vanniyars play a decisive role in a few constituencies in Salem and Edappadi," said a former minister who is part of the executive committee.

Not just this. EPS has given away Perambur, one of the high-profile constituencies in North Chennai, to the PMK, where actor and TVK leader Vijay is all set for his electoral debut. Perambur being a semi-urban constituency with a sizeable working population, the PMK's strength may not suffice to fight a mighty DMK candidate and a charismatic player like Vijay.

Apart from the PMK, the AIADMK leader has played his cards very smartly with the Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar), led by former shipping minister G. K. Vasan. The TMC will be contesting from five constituencies, all of them currently held by DMK heavyweights, former ministers, and the Congress. And for the smaller partners like the Indhiya Jananayaga Katchi (IJK), the two seats are again not winnable, with one of them being Kunnam, DMK Transport Minister S. S. Sivasankar's constituency.

The AMMK has been given Mannargudi in the delta region, which is a DMK bastion held by Industries Minister T. R. B. Rajaa for the past three terms. On the other hand, the AMMK has managed to secure Karaikudi and a few other constituencies in the south where Dhinakaran already has ground support. However, EPS, on Wednesday after the seat allocation to the alliance partners, defended the move and expressed confidence, saying: "All parties are the same in this alliance. There is no big or small. Seats have been shared equally."

However, the AIADMK has retained most of its bastions in the western belt and some of the winning segments in northern Tamil Nadu, giving away a majority of seats in the south and the delta where its winning probability is lower. The AIADMK, by contesting in 169 seats, is planning to win at least 120 constituencies to touch the magic number of 118. "Our leader has made sure our party has the upper hand in seat-sharing," says the former minister.