On March 15, the Election Commission of India (ECI) announced April 9 as the polling date for Kerala, leaving barely 25 days for active campaigning. This marks the shortest campaign window in the state’s assembly election history. Until now, the 1970 polls held the record at 31 days. In 2021, parties had 39 days to campaign, while in 2016 they had the longest window—73 days between the announcement and polling.
This unusually compressed timeline is likely to affect political alliances differently. THE WEEK analyses its possible impact.
The CPI and the CPI(M)—allies in the LDF—scored early political points by announcing candidates for most seats within 90 minutes of the election announcement. Notably, both parties are fielding a majority of incumbent MLAs and ministers. For instance, when the CPI(M) released its first list of 81 candidates, including independents, nearly 70 per cent were sitting MLAs. The party also granted term exemptions to 16 leaders, including Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, allowing them to contest beyond the usual two-term norm, citing winnability. CPI(M) candidates began roadshows on March 15 itself.
In contrast, the UDF’s candidate selection process has dragged on, with the leadership appearing to slip into panic mode in the immediate aftermath of the announcement.
“This created the impression that the UDF remains unprepared, while the LDF appears well-prepared. Win or lose, its candidates are in place, and its manifesto is expected imminently. The BJP, too, appears prepared—at least in key constituencies,” says D. Dhanuraj, founder of the think tank Centre for Public Policy Research.
With such a short campaign window, the situation puts significant pressure on the Congress-led UDF. Incumbent MLAs and ministers—whose faces are more familiar to the electorate—enjoy a clear edge when campaign time is limited. Candidates contesting from new constituencies, meanwhile, have little opportunity to build local familiarity or organisational depth. This is a key disadvantage for the Congress in a compressed campaign.
The Congress is expected to announce its first list soon, but any continuation of infighting over the rest of the seats could prove costly.
Interestingly, the early momentum gained by the CPI(M) through swift candidate selection has been partly offset by the emergence of another rebel in its stronghold of Taliparamba in Kannur. Dhanuraj observes that, in that sense, the LDF’s biggest challenge may be internal.
Candidate selection is generally seen as a crucial element for winnability in Kerala. “Who the candidate is can influence about 3–4 per cent of voters, as studies have shown,” says Dhanuraj. “However, it is incorrect to say that most voters decide in the last 20 days—most have already made up their minds.”
Asked whether the UDF is banking on this too much, Dhanuraj, however, cautions that it cannot take things for granted. There are signs that the BJP could improve its performance, and a stronger BJP showing—by splitting anti-incumbency votes—may indirectly benefit the CPI(M), which is seeking a third term.
Dhanuraj also points to a circulating theory that the poll schedule may reflect a CPI(M)–BJP understanding—one that could help the LDF retain power while enabling the BJP to improve its tally.
He links this to the Supreme Court’s hearings on the Sabarimala women’s entry petitions, scheduled from April 7 to April 24, while campaigning in Kerala ends on the evening of April 7. “For both the LDF and the BJP, their stand on the issue will not come into play during the campaign,” he notes. “Whether this is coincidental or planned is unclear.”
Notably, the BJP is pushing the narrative that the state is headed for a fractured mandate, citing its expected improved performance. Observers note that this narrative may also benefit the CPI(M), as it carries undertones of instability in government formation.
At a time when concerns about instability are already heightened due to the situation in West Asia—with a significant Malayali population working in the Gulf—such messaging could reinforce a preference for stability. This, in turn, may nudge voters towards the familiar, incumbent Pinarayi Vijayan government.
To counter such narratives, unity within the Congress and the UDF will be crucial—not least to dispel concerns that a UDF government, if elected, could be unstable due to internal divisions and infighting.
From a financial perspective, a shorter campaign reduces expenditure. Compared to the LDF and the NDA, the UDF has relatively fewer resources on the ground. There are also indications that the Congress in Kerala relies significantly on support from Congress-ruled neighbouring states for campaign finances. In that sense, a shorter campaign period offers some relief to the UDF. However, what was expected to be a marathon has now turned into a sprint—one in which it still faces some inherent disadvantages.