The BJP's decision to order 501kg of laddoos ahead of the counting of Bihar election votes on Friday—anticipating a win for the NDA alliance—may not have been in vain, if the latest exit polls are to be believed.
According to the Today's Chanakya exit poll, the NDA is set to emerge with a 44 per cent vote share (with a margin for error of plus/minus 3 per cent), as compared to the Mahagathbandhan at 38 per cent (with a margin for error of plus/minus 3 per cent)—a difference of about 6 per cent vote share. Other parties are expected to receive a roughly 18 per cent vote share.
The NDA is expected to get 160 seats (with a margin for error of plus/minus 12 seats), while the grand alliance is forecast to get 77 seats (with a margin for error of plus/minus 12 seats).
This is not far off from an earlier Polstrat opinion poll, based on a sample size of 8.42 lakh respondents, which claimed that the NDA would emerge with a 44.80 per cent vote share, as compared to the Mahagathbandhan at 38.60 per cent—a difference of a 6.2 per cent vote share. This poll also predicted that the NDA would get 133-142 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan would get 80-88 seats.
Another exit poll by Axis My India, however, narrowed the gap between the two alliances, claiming that the NDA would get a 43 per cent vote share (with a margin for error of plus/minus 2 per cent), while the grand alliance would get a close 41 per cent (with the same margin for error).
This would translate into 121-141 seats for the NDA, and 98-118 seats for its main rival. This exit poll also goes on to predict that the RJD would emerge as the single-largest party when the results are out.
Other exit polls, such as the People's Insight and DVC Research Polls Survey, show similar figures—133-148 and 137-152 seats (respectively) for the NDA ; 87-102 and 83-98 seats (respectively) for the grand alliance.
The results of the Assembly elections in Bihar will be announced on Friday, following two phases of voting on November 6 and 11.