P.C. Chacko defected to the NCP just before the 2021 Kerala Assembly elections, blaming factionalism within the Congress. However, due to shifting factional dynamics, he has now lost his position as the Kerala state chief of the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction). Chacko, reportedly, informed Pawar that he was resigning to “avoid a split in the party.” Notably, Chacko did not resign from his position as the national working president of the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction).
But did his resignation from the Kerala NCP chief post actually prevent a split within the state unit?
The NCP in Kerala has been grappling with internal disputes for some time. The party has two MLAs in the state assembly—A.K. Saseendran and Thomas K. Thomas—and the sharing of ministerial positions has been a major source of contention. Midway through the LDF government's term, Thomas aspired to replace Saseendran as a minister, and Chacko supported his claim. Thomas had hoped to secure a cabinet position with Chacko’s backing and Sharad Pawar’s approval. However, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan rejected Chacko’s request to induct Thomas into the cabinet, opting to retain Saseendran.
At the beginning of this month, Chacko’s speech criticising chief minister Vijayan in harsh language had surfaced. In the audio, Chacko criticised the CM for refusing to make changes in his cabinet.
This has further alienated Chacko within the LDF.
Following the Chief Minister's decision, several district functionaries aligned with Thomas switched their allegiance to the Saseendran camp. Chacko’s leadership style also fuelled internal conflicts within the party. He had previously replaced 11 district presidents and tried to appoint his loyalists to the minister's staff. Yet, in a surprising turn of events, Thomas K. Thomas—whom Chacko had supported—also now joined the Saseendran faction, leaving Chacko politically isolated. Reportedly, Saseendran agreed to support Thomas as the new state chief of NCP. There are also indications that Saseendran emailed Sharad Pawar, urging him to approve Thomas's appointment.
However, there is a section of political observers who believe that the Saseendran faction is still steering the NCP towards a split and could soon sever ties with Sharad Pawar. They argue that Chacko's resignation may not have prevented a division within the party. Rumours of a possible reconciliation between Sharad Pawar and his nephew, Ajit Pawar, have been circulating for some time. If Sharad Pawar were to reconcile with his nephew, it would likely lead to Pawar Sr aligning with the BJP—an alliance that the CPI(M) would strongly oppose.
Speculation about a potential split is further fuelled by recent political tensions within the Maha Vikas Aghadi, which arose after Sharad Pawar honoured Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, drawing sharp criticism from the Shiv Sena (UBT).
Despite Chacko's resignation, a CPI(M)-backed split in Kerala NCP remains a possibility, with the Saseendran faction potentially severing ties with both Pawar and Chacko. Notably, Chacko’s relationship with the CM and the CPI(M) further deteriorated after the release of his audio clip.
If the Saseendran faction ultimately chooses to break away, they could cite reasons ranging from Sharad Pawar’s gesture toward Shinde to Chacko’s high-handedness and political missteps during his tenure as NCP state chief.
