Decoding the Dalit factor in Haryana results: How BJP redeemed itself in the eyes of SCs

A major factor behind the Bharatiya Janata Party’s surprising victory in Haryana is the success of its efforts to reach out to the Dalit voters post the Lok Sabha elections. On the other hand, the Congress failed to build the support that it got from the Scheduled Castes during the parliamentary elections, and its excessive dependence on the Jat vote bank may have even alienated a substantial section of the SC community.

A look at the 17 constituencies reserved for the SCs shows that the two parties almost evenly split the seats amongst themselves, making the contest in these areas a bipolar one. The BJP increased its tally in the reserved seats from five in 2019 to eight in these elections. The Congress emerged victorious in nine seats this time while it had won seven in the previous state elections.

The BJP’s performance in the reserved seats in the Assembly elections shows that the party has in fact redeemed itself to a large extent in the eyes of the Dalit voter as compared to how it fared in the Lok Sabha polls.

It was observed in the Lok Sabha elections that the Dalit electorate backed the Congress as it won five out of the 10 seats in the state, up from the zero it had scored in the 2019 elections. The Congress had won both the reserved Lok Sabha seats in the state.

The Congress’s campaign about the Constitution being under threat and the perception that the BJP’s claims of winning more than 400 seats was an indication of its plans to rework the reservation format were crucial factors in the choice made by the Dalit voters in the state in the parliamentary elections.

However, the way the reserved constituencies voted in the state elections shows that the Congress, contrary to its expectations, could not corner the Dalit vote. Both the Congress and the BJP gained in these seats at the cost of the JJP, which had won four reserved constituencies in 2019 but was completely wiped out in these seats this time round. Also, if the Congress wrested one reserved seat from the BJP, the saffron party won two such seats that were previously held by the Congress.

The Dalits comprise an estimated 20.2 per cent of the total population of the state, and are also in a position to make a difference in around 50 seats in the state apart from the 17 that are reserved for Scs.

Aware of the importance of the Dalit voter in Haryana, and also keen to incorporate the SCs in the caste coalition it was building to counter the Jat consolidation behind the Congress, the Nayab Singh Saini government took initiatives in right earnest after the Lok Sabha elections to woo the constituency.

Amongst the steps taken by the Saini government was sub-categorisation of the reservation for the Dalits in the state. On the eve of elections, the government, in what is being viewed as an effort to ensure the support of the non-Jatav Dalits who have voted for the BJP in the past, announced 20 per cent quota in government jobs for the SCs, and 10 per cent of the reservation would be for the deprived Scs.

On the other hand, the Congress’s projection of former chief minister and veteran Jat leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda as the face of its campaign and its dependence on the Jat community to see it through is believed to have turned away a sizeable section of the Dalits. The alienation of prominent Dalit leader Kumari Selja in the Congress’s campaign, which was heavily dominated by Hooda, was played up by the BJP in the election campaign.

According to Congress sources, the Selja factor did contribute to the party’s failure to consolidate the Dalit vote in its favour. They say the party’s focus on Jats and the sidelining of Selja had the undesirable effect of demotivating the Dalit workers who may not have done their best in reaching out to the SC voters.