Naga issue at crossroads as polls overshadow peace talks

Ahead of August 15, political groups as well as insurgent outfits in Nagaland are demanding a settlement on the Naga issue, which entails moving towards a final peace accord to end the longest running insurgent movement.

Any peace accord at this stage will have to be based on the much-hyped framework agreement signed between the government and the NSCN(IM) on August 3, 2015. This is where the problem lies as there is growing realisation on both sides that the signing of the framework agreement with a single outfit has not only prolonged the entire process but also created a huge trust deficit, not only with NSCN(IM) but also with other Naga outfits who were inclined to participate in the peace talks.

The government finds itself between a rock and a hard place as there are no takers today for the framework agreement and any talks based only on that premise may not be fruitful going forward.

Another worry of the national political groups, who have been holding talks with the government-appointed interlocutor A.K. Mishra, is that if no settlement is reached before the state assembly polls next year, the issue may get dragged more and will be put on the back burner.

Assembly elections in Assam and Manipur, which have a sizeable Naga population, have already taken place and despite promises made by political parties and chief ministers, before and after the polls, there has been no forward movement in negotiations for a Naga settlement. While Assam held assembly elections last year, Manipur concluded polls early this year. With the BJP and NDPP issuing a joint statement recently announcing that they had mutually agreed to continue their alliance with seat sharing ratio of 40:20 in the forthcoming assembly polls in Nagaland in 2023, several Naga outfits under the aegis of Naga National Political Groups feel the focus has shifted to elections rather than an early Naga settlement.

''We saw the same happening in Assam and Manipur where the political parties and senior leaders promised that as soon as they come to power, the Naga issue will be sorted out. But it is not on the priority list,'' said a Naga leader. Both states have already made it clear that their territories will not be impacted in a final settlement.

“The issue is dragged from election to election and once again we seem to be moving towards that,” he said.

With the framework agreement completing seven years this August, Elu Nadang, general secretary of Naga Hoho, an apex Naga tribal body, said that the Naga people are at crossroads.

''We have reached a point where the ball in is the government's court and it is my understanding that at the moment, there is no serious focus on political talks,'' he said. Nadang said the state polls may bring in a coalition government to power but it is the Union government which will need to sort out key issues first.

Issues concerning protecting the political identity of the Naga people, represented by the Naga national flag and Yehzabo (constitution) are key to a final settlement. But, before that, removing the trust deficit, maintaining the ceasefire agreement with the various factions will be equally important as much water has flown under the bridge since the framework agreement was signed in 2015. Then, government-appointed interlocutor R.N. Ravi followed it by signing an agreement with a working committee of six Naga National Political Groups led by its convenor Kitovi Zhimomi in 2017. Both instances failed. It may be recalled that all past agreements on the Naga political issue ended up in failure - the 9 Points Agreement of 1947, the 16 Points Agreement of 1960 and the Shillong Accord of 1975.

The political parties in Nagaland will once again try to woo Nagas by promising a final peace settlement. The takers may be fewer this time.