Yogi in lead: The big fight in Gorakhpur, and the caste equations in play

As early results came pouring out, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has taken on a big lead in his constituency of Gorakhpur Urban, mirroring BJP's early leads in over 150 of 403 constituencies in the state. Samajwadi Party was a distant second as of 09:30am, leading in over 45 seats. Gorakhpur is the home turf of UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, who is contesting assembly polls for the first time. The SP has intensified the mobilisation of Muslims and backward classes in the region. 

In UP, the BJP has divided its organisational structure into six parts—West Zone, Braj, Kanpur-Bundelkhand, Awadh, Kashi and the Gorakhpur region. The Gorakhpur region comprises 10 districts of Gorakhpur, Maharajganj, Deoria, Kushinagar, Basti, Sant Kabirnagar, Siddharthnagar, Azamgarh, Ballia and Mau and has a total of 62 assembly constituencies. In 2017, the BJP had won 44 of the 62 assembly seats in the 10 districts of Gorakhpur region, where Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has considerable influence, while the SP and the BSP got seven each, and Congress and an Independent one each. Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), which was then allying with the BJP, and Apna Dal (Sonelal) had also won one seat each in this area.

However, this time the SBSP, led by Om Prakash Rajbhar, an influential leader of the backward classes in Purvanchal and the first to quit the post of minister in the Yogi Adityanath government, has allied with the Samajwadi Party (SP). 

Also, the then ministers Swami Prasad Maurya and Dara Singh Chauhan resigned and switched to the SP just before the elections. They are now contesting from Fazilnagar in Kushinagar and Ghosi seat in Mau, respectively, on SP ticket.

With changed political equations, there is apprehension about the splitting of votes among most backward castes Rajbhar, Maurya-Kushwaha and Chauhan (Nonia) fraternity, according to political analysts.