Personal, political battle: Why Modi is camping in Varanasi before 7th phase

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s three-day stay in Varanasi has triggered some discussion about whether the BJP’s hold on the Uttar Pradesh electorate has waned and, consequently, whether extreme measures are required for the final push.

In the Lok Sabha elections of 2019, Modi had visited Varanasi, his parliamentary constituency, only to file his nomination and held a roadshow. He had not returned till after the election results were announced. In his videotaped appeal to voters, he had described himself as a Kashivala with an unbreakable bond with the city.

After the Lok Sabha election, which gave him a second term as MP from Varanasi, Modi had said that the people of the city had led his campaign, asking him specifically to stay away till the results.

Hence the discussion on why he is now staying on in an assembly election.

Varanasi votes in the last phase of the seven-leg assembly elections in the state.

Eight other districts, and a total of 54 assembly constituencies go to the polls with it on March 7.

The only other phase in which there were just nine districts in the fray was phase two. But phase 7 is the smallest of phases as far as assembly constituencies are concerned. In phase two, there were 55 in comparison.

Phase 6, for which polling is happening on Thursday, is the phase in which Gorakhpur votes. In this district lies the assembly constituency from which Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is fighting his first-ever assembly election. Thus, of all the phases, phase 6 is the one in which Adityanath’s popularity and prestige will face the severest test.

Similarly, phase 7 is a direct test of Modi’s popularity. Symbolically, thus, it is the Uttar Pradesh elections’ biggest phase.

Modi is undoubtable admired in Varanasi. The crowds who turned up in December 2021 when he dedicated the Kashi Vishwanath corridor to the public were a reminder of that popularity, in case any reminding was needed. His acts during the events—such as showering petals on the sanitation workers and eating with the construction workers—were crafted to reinforce the message around which he has crafted his politics. One, that he stands with the most disadvantaged (remember his multiple proclamations about being ‘most backward’). Two being that he remains pradhan sevak.

There are, however, signs that all is not well in Varanasi.

Earlier this week, a group of advocates came out to protest against the BJP state government in Varanasi. They also took out a bike rally. One of the placards they held said, “Jo nafrat ki baat karega, wohi Pradesh ka nash karega (He who talks of hatred will destroy the state)”. This is a direct criticism of Adityanath’s election campaign language. Adityanath has been accused of being divisive (his claims such as “this is an 80: 20 election”, referring to the Hindu: Muslim population in the state), threatening (bulldozers have been sent for repair for use after March 10) and foul (“shall take the heat out of Akhilesh Yadav”).

Within the party, in the RSS and the VHP, there are growing murmurs that Adityanath is doing more harm than good to the party with use of such language. As the CM, he is not just any politician, and a higher standard of public conduct is expected of him, counts on which he has failed miserably.

The Samyukt Kisan Morcha has, throughout the election, been distributing pamphlets on how this government has treated farmers. In Varanasi, their efforts have been more vigorous.

At a meeting organised at the Paradgar auditorium in the city on Wednesday, Yogendra Yadav said, “We appeal to the farmers of Purvanchal to punish the BJP for deceiving them. Neither has a committee been formed for MSP nor have the cases against farmers been taken back”.

The farmers’ cause is one that the advocates are also rooting for. Thus among the many slogans they raised was, “Kisano ke hatyaron ko, vote mut do desh ke gaddaron ko (Don’t vote for the killers of farmers, for the traitors)”. They are also drawing attention to the issue of unemployment.

The election pot has been stirred by the arrival of Mamata Banerjee in Varanasi on March 2 in support of Akhilesh Yadav. It did not help the BJP’s cause that members of the Hindu Yuva Vahini (a rightwing self-styled militia founded by Adityanath) showed Banerjee black flags and jostled with her entourage. Banerjee quipped that the BJP was anticipating a fate similar to that in West Bengal and thus the reaction.

The HYV ruckus was a poor, ill-thought move, which leads one to wonder how deep the BJP’s worries run. After becoming the CM, Adityanath has kept his distance from the HYV. Thus for its members to suddenly turn up in Varanasi is an indicator that all might not be going as per plan for the BJP.

Phases six and seven are where the most backward parts of the state vote. In 2017, the BJP had won 84 of the 111 seats in these phases. But the catch was that most of these wins were not with huge margins. Thus even a slight shift in vote share will take this election away from the BJP.

No matter what the BJP and the SP claim, this election is still to be called. And it is the votes of these last phases that will decide the winner. It is also these phases that will indicate whether the small-party alliances, made with a sharp eye on caste combinations, will work.

Phase 6 was Adityanath’s show. Phase 7 is Modi’s. And there is no way he can lose this one. It is personal as much as it is political.