The COVID-19 situation in Kerala has been of concern, with the state accounting for the highest daily figures for weeks now. For instance, on Tuesday, Kerala reported 21,119 new COVID-19 cases, with a test positivity rate of 16 per cent. Kerala's contribution to the national figure of daily COVID cases of 38,3333 on Wednesday, was over 50 per cent.
The visit by an expert team from the Centre to assess the COVID situation in Kerala in late July had attracted considerable attention.
On Wednesday, The Indian Express reported that the Central team had submitted a detailed report to the Union government on the COVID-19 situation, listing the reasons for the high COVID-19 infection rate in Kerala.
Among the reasons listed were the 'faint' rural-urban divide in the state, high migration rate, prevalence of non-communicable diseases and high proportion of elderly people.
One of the team members, Dr Sujeet Kumar Singh, director, National Centre for Disease Control, was quoted by The Indian Express as saying, “The rural-urban divide [in Kerala] is very faint. Like we see in North Indian states, especially in high-population density states, farmlands create a natural barrier for spread of infection... In Kerala, houses are spread in a linear manner. Home isolation is not taking place properly there.”
Singh also referred to the high prevalence of cases of re-infection among vaccinated persons, including many who received both doses. “As data shared by the district collector, for instance in Pathanamthitta (shows), 5,042 got infected after two doses of vaccines," Singh was quoted as saying by The Indian Express. He added the experts were investigating how long after the second dose did the patients get infected and whether they had severe infections and need for hospitalisation.
Over 80 per cent of the cases were of the delta variant of the virus. Singh noted the high prevalence of the highly infectious delta strain added to the transmission risk in Kerala.
Singh noted the prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCD), such as diabetes, blood pressure and heart conditions, was nearly 30 per cent in Kerala. "High prevalence of NCDs is another factor helping in higher disease prevalence. The infection rate increases with diabetes," Singh was quoted as saying by The Indian Express.
Ironically, two factors associated with Kerala's image as a developed state—high life expectancy and high migration—were also cited as factors precipitating high rates of COVID infection. Singh called for localised lockdowns to curb transmission.
The Central team had given a grim forecast for August, given the continued 'unlock' measures to normalise business activity and the upcoming Onam festival. Singh noted the unlocking of activities, approach of the Onam festival and reopening of tourism pose challenging scenarios and it is a cause of concern. Singh said, "it is expected that for the period of August 1 to August 20, the state may witness around 4.62 lakh COVID cases."
Why experts still defend Kerala model
Despite the criticism from some quarters, the Kerala government and some experts have said the state's strategy to curb COVID could not be faulted. The Kerala government had cited the low fatality rate and low rate of hospitalisation and need for ICU beds to show the pandemic situation was under control.
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In an interview with The Wire in late July, eminent virologist Gagandeep Kang told Karan Thapar that Kerala's high COVID figures were "a very small part of the overall picture”.
Kang told The Wire, "Kerala has done an outstanding job in controlling the spread of COVID-19, so far... Kerala is not a concern for the rest of India… there’s not a lot to worry about (Kerala).” She even argued Kerala "could act as a model for the rest of India".
Kang referred to Kerala conducting more COVID tests than other larger states also conducting tests in a targeted manner in areas with high prevalence of COVID, which would result in higher number of positive cases.
(With inputs from PTI, onmanorama)