The stage is set for an engrossing electoral battle in the states with ramifications at the national level, with the Election Commission on Friday announcing the schedule for Assembly polls in West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Puducherry.
The Commission announced elections in eight phases in West Bengal, the poll dates being March 27, and April 1, 6, 10, 17, 22, 26 and 27. There will be a three-phase polling in Assam, with the election dates being March 27, April 1 and 6. Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry will have polling in a single phase on April 6. The counting of votes for all the states will be held on May 2.
In all, 824 assembly constituencies will be going to polls, involving 18.68 crore voters and 2.7 lakh polling booths. The polling will be held as per COVID-19 guidelines that were in force even during the state elections in Bihar, and this would result in limiting the number of voters per polling booth to a thousand compared to the earlier figure of 1500, restriction on the number of people accompanying candidates during nomination, social distancing protocol to be observed during campaigning and increasing the polling time by one hour.
The elections in West Bengal have grabbed eyeballs on account of the high-decibel, no-holds-barred volley of attacks and counter-attacks between Trinamool supremo and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and the top leadership of the BJP. The saffron party has launched a highly aggressive campaign against the Mamata regime, accusing it of not allowing central schemes to be launched in the state and alleging that the TMC has taken to violent methods in a bid to retain power. The TMC, on the other hand, is running a campaign based on the 'insider-outsider' theme, attempting to label the BJP as outsiders who are out to destroy Bengali culture and projecting Mamata as Bengal's own daughter. The Congress and the Left parties have joined forces in an attempt to turn the election into a triangular contest. The opposition alliance recently brought into its fold the Indian Secular Front of Furfura sharif cleric Abbas Siddiqui in an attempt to consolidate minority votes in its favour.
Kerala has had a tradition of voting out the incumbent. However, the good show by the LDF in the recent local body polls came as a rude shock to the Congress-led UDF and made it clear that the Pinarayi Vijayan regime could not be written off. The Congress' campaign relies largely on former party chief Rahul Gandhi who has been campaigning extensively in the state. The Congress has put veteran leader Oomen Chandy in the lead in a bid to deal with the alienation of the Christian community, which has been its core support base. It has also brought up the issue of Sabarimala to try and corner the LDF government over its perceived mishandling of the issue of allowing women devotees into the shrine.
This will be the first Assembly election in Tamil Nadu where the electoral scene will be devoid of M. Karunanidhi and J. Jayalalithaa, the two figures who had had a towering presence over the politics in the state. The M.K. Stalin-led DMK is attempting to win back the state. It is in an alliance with the Congress, the Left parties, the VCK, the MMK, the IUML, the MDMK and other smaller parties. Splintered and appearing to be a pale shadow of what it was under Jayalalithaa, the AIADMK is struggling as much to present a credible face to the people as with its internal divisions and the complications brought in by the return of former Jayalalithaa aide V.K. Sasikala. The AIADMK is in an alliance with the BJP.
In neighbouring Puducherry, which has been a Congress stronghold, the political scenario is in a tumult just ahead of elections, with a flurry of MLAs of the ruling party quitting, leading to the fall of the V. Narayanasamy government. The Congress has accused the BJP of orchestrating the defections even as its alliance with the DMK in the Union Territory is in trouble.
The elections in Assam are being held in the shadow of the controversy over the Citizenship Amendment Act and the National Register of Citizens. The BJP, which had made its entry into the northeast with a victory in Assam in the previous election, is banking on its welfare measures. The Congress, which is bereft of a face to offer after the death of former chief minister Tarun Gogoi, is hoping that the popular sentiment against CAA-NRC would help it. It has entered into an alliance with Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF, hoping to consolidate the Muslim votes. However, what may go against the opposition alliance is the presence of a number of players in the opposition space after several outfits came up in opposition against the Centre's decision to come up with CAA.
The elections are bound to have an impact on the national political scene, with the BJP striving to add West Bengal to its kitty and retain Assam, even as it would want to have a say in the politics of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala. On the other hand, the elections will have a bearing on the leadership conundrum in the Congress, with Rahul leading the campaign in majority of the states going to polls. The elections to the post of party president have been postponed till after the Assembly elections, and the outcome of the state polls could have a bearing on how the leadership question is decided. Meanwhile, if Mamata manages to stave off the BJP challenge on her home turf, she could emerge as a potential challenger to Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the national level.
