A recent uptick in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Delhi has had the Centre worried. Health ministry data suggests five states account for 70 per cent of the deaths—Andhra Pradesh (6 per cent), Delhi (6.65 per cent), Karnataka (8.83 per cent), Tamil Nadu (11.16 per cent), and Maharashtra (37.39 per cent).
However, if the data for the average daily case fatality trajectory is analysed, the situation in Delhi and Karnataka seems worrying. In three weeks, starting from August 13 to September 2, deaths have increased by 50 per cent in Delhi and by 9.6 per cent in Karnataka. This data is important as epidemiologists say that at this point, the government's focus should be on enhancing testing and reducing deaths, given that a majority will only suffer mild to moderate illness.
Since August 21, Delhi's numbers have been generating concern—active cases have risen from 1,250 to 2,509 (on September 1), and containment zones from 589 to 820. With the Unlock 4 guidelines allowing metros and inter-state movement, the situation in Delhi will be challenging.
The Union home ministry has been engaging with the Delhi government on how to tackle the situation, Rajesh Bhushan, Union health secretary told the media. “At a meeting with the LG, representatives of the ICMR, AIIMS, New Delhi, Niti Aayog and the health ministry discussed new ways to deal with the situation. We are confident that if those suggestions are followed, Delhi will be able to reduce the active cases and deaths, like [it did] before,” Bhushan said.
On testing, Bhushan defended the government's strategy of increasing rapid antigen tests and reducing the number of Rt-PCR tests, which are considered the gold standard for COVID-19 tests. In the early phases of the pandemic, especially in the months of March and April, rapid tests were not available in the country. Post that, however, India has augmented its testing rates by using the rapid tests.
“There's no uniform picture in the country when it comes to using these tests. The percentage of RT-PCR tests in Tamil Nadu, for instance, is 90 per cent, perhaps even more. But there are other states where RT-PCR tests and Trunat and Cbnat tests are limited,” Bhushan said. The rapid tests were ideal for containment and buffer zones, he said.
“I do admit that there are states that are not utilising their capacity to do RT-PCR tests. We have asked them to scale up their RT-PCR tests,” he said.
India's use of rapid antigen tests has been appreciated by the WHO, Dr Balram Bhargava, director general, ICMR, said. Rapid antigen tests have been a subject of debate since experts say that unless the symptomatic negatives are re-tested, the point of using these tests is lost.
“Many states are not retesting the symptomatic negatives. We know this from the data that is coming in,” a health ministry official told THE WEEK. These tests should ideally be used in smaller districts and towns where RT-PCR testing is not available, the official added.
