The peak stage of COVID-19 pandemic in India has been delayed by the eight-week lockdown along with strengthened public health measures and it may now arrive around mid-November, a study has claimed. However, there could be a paucity of isolation and ICU beds, and ventilators, according to it.
With 9,195 fatalities till Sunday, India is the ninth worst-hit nation in terms of COVID-19 deaths. The total tally (active and cured cases combined) is now over 3.20 lakh, of which over half have recovered from the disease. According to the Union health ministry data, the country recorded 311 new deaths in the 24-hour period till Sunday morning while the recovery rate rose to above 50 per cent with 1,62,378 patients cured so far, leaving 1,49,348 cases active.
The study conducted by researchers said the lockdown shifted the peak of the pandemic by an estimated 34 to 76 days and helped bring down the number of infections by 69 to 97 per cent thereby allowing time for the healthcare system to shore up resources and infrastructure. Reacting to media reports connecting the study to ICMR, the health organisation stated that this research is based on non peer-reviewed modelling not carried out by ICMR, and that this does not reflect the official position of ICMR.
In April, the health ministry had stated that that had a lockdown not been imposed, the country would have been staring at least 8,00,000 cases by April 15.
In the scenario of intensified public health measures with 60 per cent effectiveness after lockdown, the demand can be met until the first week of November. After that, isolation beds could be inadequate for 5.4 months, ICU beds for 4.6 and ventilators for 3.9 months, projections by the health researchers showed. However, this shortfall is estimated to be 83 per cent less than what it could have been without the lockdown and public health measures.
With sustained government steps at increasing the infrastructure and different pace of epidemic in different regions, the impact of unmet need can be reduced. If the coverage of public health measures can be increased to 80 per cent, the epidemic can be mitigated, the researchers stated.
According to the model-based analysis for COVID-19 pandemic in India, with the additional capacity which has been built up for testing, treating and isolating patients during the lockdown period, the number of cases at the peak would come down by 70 per cent and the cumulative cases may come down by nearly 27 per cent.
-Inputs from PTI