Even though cyclone Amphan has been graded as an "extremely severe cyclonic storm", and not a "super cyclone", with a wind speed more than 200 km per hour, disaster management experts are looking at three main factors that will help them determine the extent of damage Amphan can cause in the coastal districts of the country.
While a cyclone is largely measured by its wind speed, for disaster management authorities the parameters also include storm surge and rainfall. In the case of Amphan, a storm surge is the primary cause of worry as the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that since it is a "new moon" night or amavasya on Wednesday , the landfall day, waters could rise up to 4-6 metres, which makes the higher storm surge a potential cause of worry for the district administrations and the disaster management bodies.
Cyclone Amphan is predicted to proceed between Digha (West Bengal) and the Hatiya Islands in Bangladesh on Wednesday afternoon, with a maximum sustained wind speed of 155-180 kms per hour, according to IMD, Bhubaneswar. It is likely to make a landfall near Sunderbans in West Bengal and then move towards north-northeast impacting Kolkata, Hooghly, Howrah, South and North 24 Parganas and East Midnapore districts.
However, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), the national nodal agency for disaster preparedness and the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF), which leads the evacuation, rescue and rehabilitation efforts during a disaster, are geared up for an impact that could be the same as a super cyclone.
More than 1.2 lakh people in Odisha and 3.3 lakh in West Bengal have been evacuated so far. Seventeen teams of NDRF have been deployed in West Bengal and five are on standby, while 13 teams are deployed in Odisha with seven on standby. “We are facing a double challenge. We have conducted awareness drives as this is a cyclone in times of COVID. So, the response we have drafted has taken into account the pandemic,'' said S.N. Pradhan, Director General of NDRF.
Besides, the Centre has also alerted the seven northeastern states and Sikkim to be prepared for heavy rainfall, following the landfall of the cyclone.
While preparing for Amphan, the disaster management authorities have drawn lessons from Cyclone Phailin in 2013 as well as the super cyclone of Odisha in 1999, which was the worst disaster witnessed by the state. Experts are looking at both the scenarios to improve the response system.
Shashidhar Reddy, the vice chairman of NDMA in 2013, said cyclone Phailin was a success story for disaster preparedness of the country as the IMD and the disaster management authorities were able to predict the severity of the cyclone accurately. “When the major agencies in the world were giving forecasts of widespread damage and loss of lives, the cyclone division of the IMD had predicted the landfall accurately and preparations were made adequately for it,'' said Reddy.
Renowned scientist Mrutyunjay Mohapatra was in charge of the cyclone division of the IMD during cyclone Phailin. He had won the title of a cyclone expert or "cyclone man" after Phailin. Now, the predictions about Amphan are being made by the team headed by Mohapatra, who is currently the DG of IMD.
Reddy recalled how disaster preparedness became a priority for states after setting up the NDMA in 2005. In June 2006, the first mock drills in all cyclone shelters in West Bengal and Odisha were conducted by the newly formed National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), which had begun mass collaborative efforts with state governments of all coastal states in cyclone preparedness. The mock drills for cyclones have since been conducted by the state disaster management authorities and cyclone Amphan is likely to be a test case for this preparedness.