Minutes after the AIADMK faction under Edappadi K. Palaniswami and O. Panneerselvam was recognised as the 'real' AIADMK by the Election Commission of India on November 23, 2017, the duo, most popularly known as the “double-barrel gun” in political circles in Tamil Nadu, were at the party headquarters at Lloyds Road in Chennai.
Palaniswami and Panneerselvam were seen distributing and eating sweets, their party colleagues smiled in happiness, selfies flashed and it was happiness all around. Everything sounded perfect and the two were regarded as the real leaders who would carry forward the legacy of MGR and Jayalalithaa. Palaniswami and Panneerselvam were lauded for keeping the flock together.
However, seven months down the line, the fortress seems to have crumbled. The AIADMK, which claims to have 1.5 crore members, now has less than 1 crore members. Over 50 lakh members have either not renewed their membership or the party has not been able to get new members to enrol in a recently concluded membership drive.
On January 29, when Palaniswami and Panneerselvam as the joint coordinator and coordinator, respectively, of the AIADMK, called for a membership drive, the plan was to keep the flock together, showcase party unity and put sidelined leader T.T.V. Dhinakaran in his place. But unfortunately, the membership drive has turned out to be a damp squib for the duo who run the party in the name of 'Amma'.
The membership drive to enrol new members and renew existing memberships kicked off on January 29. While the deadline was March 31 initially, it was extended till April 30 at the first instance and later to June 30. The extension was announced by Palaniswami and Panneerselvam in a joint statement, saying the party office bearers were busy with the cooperative polls. But the extension of time too seems to have yielded no result.
As part of the membership drive, the party distributed 7 lakh registration forms. Of this, only 4 lakh applications forms have been duly filled and submitted at the party headquarters. In terms of memberships renewed and new members added, each form contains information on 25 people, at a cost of Rs.10 each. At the time of submission, the membership fee for each person is also Rs.10, which adds up to Rs.250 per form (i.e., Rs.10 multiplied by 25 persons).
While the membership drive came to a close on June 30 after at least three extensions, it has failed to retain a large chunk of existing AIADMK members. Highly placed sources in the AIADMK say that the number could be even less, after all the applications are properly scrutinised.
“The drive came to an end when the assembly session was on. But most ministers and district secretaries did not submit the forms. It was only after much pressure was exerted on each of them, the applications were filled and submitted. I too submitted at the last moment only,” said one of the AIADMK's district secretaries on condition of anonymity.
A party, which always saw autocracy and a charismatic leader at the helm, for the first time in its history, is without a strong leader. And of course, the dual leadership policy too has not added any advantage to the AIADMK in terms of increasing the membership or even the followers. Though both Palaniswami and Panneerselvam are called the double-barrel gun, the two have been gunning for each other to take control of the party. While Panneerselvam recently ensured that his son, O.P. Raveendranath Kumar, gets a lucrative portfolio in the Jayalalithaa Peraai, sources say in west Tamil Nadu, popularly known as the western belt, Palaniswami has strengthened his faction.
In fact, the AIADMK's 15-member steering committee—which was to be appointed on August 22, 2017, the day the Palaniswami and Panneerselvam factions merged—has still not been constituted. Sources say the factional feud between Panneerselvam and Palaniswami has only led to a decline in the AIADMK's popularity.
With the future of the AIADMK hanging in balance under the coordinator and joint coordinator, a senior leader said, “The cadres are confused about the future of the party. We don’t have a strong leader. When Amma was there, the membership drive would happen for just two weeks and over 1.50 crore forms would be distributed.”
Furthermore, the various splits in the party and Dhinakaran’s rise had dampened the prospects of the ruling faction of the AIADMK. At least 3,000 people were expelled from the AIADMK for supporting Dhinakaran. “We should check even if these numbers are true. There is no strong leader. With Palaniswami and Panneerselvam, the membership will only go down further,” says C.R. Saraswathi, spokesperson of Dhinakaran’s Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam.