Despite HC's split verdict on MLAs, Dhinakaran declares fight will go

In December 2017, when he won the R.K. Nagar bypoll with a massive margin of 40,707 votes, T.T.V. Dhinakaran stunned the ruling AIADMK faction and even the opposition DMK.

With that win, Dhinakaran had put the Edappadi K. Palaniswami government on the back foot, saying he cannot be written off. But now with the Madras High Court upholding the speaker’s decision to disqualify all the 18 MLAs who defected to his camp, Dhinakaran might not hold the same charm as he did after the R.K. Nagar bypoll. His 'pressure cooker', the election symbol of his nascent outfit, this time, will find it difficult to whistle out the AIADMK, DMK and the BJP, as he has to face byelections in all the 18 constituencies.

To add to his woes, Dhinakaran has lost support from his extended family and is already reeling under the public anger against the Sasikala family. Though he walked past the public anger against Sasikala and emerged as a new power centre after the R.K. Nagar bypoll, Dhinakaran will have to put out all his might to keep his flock of 18 MLAs intact.

With the Madras High Court now upholding the decision of the speaker, all the 18 constituencies will have to go for bypolls, which means Dhinakaran and his newly formed Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) will have to fight hard to retain all the 18 constituencies. With too many contenders from his erstwhile parent party AIADMK and the resurgent DMK, Dhinakaran’s position has turned untenable. Though he 'rightfully' claimed Jayalalithaa’s legacy after a massive victory in her constituency, Dhinakaran and his faction have never been recognised by the party cadres as the real AIADMK.

Of course, the recent rift in the 'Sasikala family' and his uncle Dhiwakaran revolting against his party's launch have added to the troubles of the sidelined deputy general secretary of the AIADMK. With the court's decision, Dhinakaran has been left in the lurch, being a lone fighter to claim Jayalalithaa’s legacy and get to the top position of the real AIADMK. To make matters worse, the Election Commission had recently approved the amended bylaw of the AIADMK constitution, wherein Palaniswami and Deputy Chief Minister O. Panneerselvam can jointly steer the party as its coordinator and joint coordinator, respectively.

Dhinakaran, again, being a lone MLA in the Assembly, might face more turbulence as he doesn’t have the support of his own parent party and cannot side with the DMK too even in an 'issue-based' framework.

Dhinakaran losing this case could also see some of his supporters defect to the ruling camp. “We have seen enough in these nine months being with Dhinakaran. The government has been intimidating us on all grounds. With this, we will have to face bypolls now, and we don’t know if TTV will stand by us throughout,” says an MLA of the Dhinakaran faction on condition of anonymity.

Moreover, even if Dhinakaran's candidates win in all the 18 constituencies if bypolls are held, he might not be able to manage to bring a trust vote in the Assembly. For that to happen, Dhinakaran will have to bring in more MLAs to his camp.