After the humiliating defeat in Gorakhpur and Phulpur Lok Sabha bypolls, the next big test for the Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and the BJP will be the Kairana parliamentary bypoll, scheduled to be held on May 28.
The seat had fallen vacant after the death of BJP MP Hukum Singh. The byelection assumes significance because of the fact that during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the constituency was polarised along the religious lines. The BJP had highlighted the issue of migration of Hindu residents from the area owing to fear psychosis created by criminals.
Singh won the seat with a massive mandate—with a lead of over 2.3 lakh votes, compared his nearest rival from the Samajwadi Party.
What is making the electoral battle tough for the BJP is the alliance between the SP and BSP. Ajit Singh-led RLD too is likely to throw its weight behind this alliance. The SP is likely to put up a candidate with the BSP lending support, as the latter does not contest bypolls. According to sources, RLD is trying to secure the seat for its former MP and Ajit Singh's son Jayant. But as their candidate had secured less than four per cent of the votes during the 2014 elections, the party may not get the seat.
The BJP is yet to declare a candidate for the seat, but chances of Hukum Singh's daughter Mrigyanka Singh getting the ticket are high. She had contested the Kairana assembly seat during the March 2017 Uttar Pradesh elections, but lost to SP's Nahid Hasan. Kairana assembly seat was earlier represented by her father Hukum Singh for seven times before he moved to Lok Sabha. Her candidature will also help the BJP garner sympathy votes as the constituency had known her family for long.
Going by the 2014 numbers, the BJP scored higher even when votes polled by candidates of SP, BSP and RLD were taken together. At that time, both the SP and the BSP had fielded Muslim candidates as they targetted minority community votes. As the constituency by then had been polarised due to the issue of Hindu migration, the BJP managed to secure an easy win.
To counter the BJP, the opposition alliance may field a Hindu candidate so that there is no polarisation.
The BJP, on the other side, will be pulling out all the stops to ensure that the polling percentage is higher, unlike the Phulpur and Gorakhpur bypolls. CM Adityanath had attributed those defeats to “overconfidence” among the party workers.
Currently, the party is busy with Karnataka polls. After May 12 when Karnataka goes to polls, BJP chief Amit Shah is likely to pay full attention to this seat. Even when the BJP had won state elections, the setback in the bypolls had taken the sheen away from the victory.
Kairana will not be easy either for the BJP or the SP-BSP combine.