Terrorism is unlikely to be a thrust area for India at the Heads of Commonwealth Meeting in London this month. This will be the first time Prime Minister Narendra Modi comes face to face with his Pakistani counterpart Shahid Khaqan Abbasi after Davos in January. Both the leaders did not have any bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the conference. The schedule at CHOGM is packed, claims the ministry of external affairs.
“It is a very packed summit,’’ said Rudrendra Tandon, joint secretary of the United Nations (political) division at the foreign ministry, at a press briefing. “If there are bilateral meetings it has to be on the first day…it is very packed. At this juncture we don’t have the list of the PM. But we are looking at the opportunity to meet heads of small island states. Prima facie that will be our emphasis.”
On being asked whether the forum would be used to push for a strong statement against terrorism—read Pakistan—Tandon said that the focus would be on issues of developing countries. “The fact that international community needs to come together to combat terrorism is a part of overall multilateral diplomacy.” It was “not appropriate’’ to bring the T word here. He, however, added that UN is the best focus on these issues.
India had boycotted the last meeting as it was held in Sri Lanka. The CHOGM, however, will require Indian diplomats to use all their skills to find a balanced position on the spy poisoning case in Salisbury. Britain will be keen to push the CHOGM to come out strongly against Russia for the chemical attack. It would want to use this opportunity to name Russia as culprit as well as get the CHOGM to condemn the attack. Russia is an old ally, and India has very strong relationship with the UK.
To make matters more complicated, the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) report on the samples collected by them submitted on Thursday confirms that finding of the UK relating to the “identity of the toxic chemical’’ used in the attack. While it doesn’t name Novichok, it does say it was of ‘high purity’.
When asked what India’s position would be, Tandon, chose to deflect. “I don’t think we should speculate what another commonwealth country is likely to do or not do. This wouldn’t be the right place to speculate,’’ he said.
The finding of the report has put India in a difficult position. So far, India has refrained of pointing any fingers. In a statement at OPCW—at a meeting called by the Russians to request for a joint probe on the incident—India came out strongly against the use of chemical weapons, however, abstained from voting. The stance was clear: there was no need to jump to conclusions till the report came out.
India had maintained that investigations of "alleged use of chemical weapons" should be conducted "strictly in accordance with the provisions of the Convention.” “We also urge that all provisions of the Convention be utilised to address concerns in accordance with the procedures laid down in the Convention, so as to reach evidence-based conclusions,'' Venu Rajamony, India's permanent representative to Hague had said in his statement.
With the evidence now pointing to Russia—its old ally—there will be a push to take sides, something India can't do. And it will require considerable skills for India to come out of this diplomatic pickle. It doesn’t help that Pakistan has already pledged its loyalty—and bought brownie points of course—with Russia, by voting for a joint probe at the emergency session of the OPCW last week. The incident has become a huge trigger for an anti-Russia stance by the West.