The Danube and water-energy nexus: From the past to the present crisis

The Danube, a hallmark of transboundary river water cooperation, experienced record-low water levels at the start of August, impacting energy generation across its basin. There are almost 700 multipurpose dams built by 19 countries in the Danube basin, with a total hydropower generation capacity of about 30000 MW.  Also, nuclear plants located in Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria had to reduce their output as they were dependent on the Danube’s water for cooling. This water-energy nexus along the Danube has evolved considerably over time. It predates the current crisis.

The early 20th century

The Danube has experienced many political turbulences throughout history, from the Roman Empire to the Russian Empire. However, hydropower development along the Danube was being discussed as early as the start of the 20th century. Debates about the construction of the Wallsee hydropower project in Austria date back to the 1910s, while Czechoslovakia asserted its rights to develop hydropower plants on the Danube during the interwar period.

The Cold War era

The hydropolitical struggle over the Danube became prominent during the Cold War. Despite the divide, socialist Romania and non-aligned Yugoslavia jointly built the Iron Gates dam. It was also a marker of the improvement of the East-West relations in Europe. The Iron Gates, commissioned in 1972, remains the largest hydropower project on the Danube River and one of the major projects across Europe.

However, the Danube also saw hydropower as an arena of political contestation due to the techno-economic aspects of the hydropower plants. Romania and Bulgaria had signed an agreement to build and operate the Turnu Magurele- Nikopol hydropower project on the Danube in 1975. The project was subsequently abandoned due to economic concerns and political differences over the river basin management.

Along with hydropower, nuclear energy was also at the centre of attention in the Danube Basin. A report by the International Atomic Energy Agency reveals that several countries in the basin had planned to develop the nuclear power industry on the banks of the Danube in the 1970s. West Germany built the Gundremmingen plant. Bulgaria built Kozloduy and Hungary developed Paks nuclear power plants in the Danube basin, using Soviet VVER technology. Romania was the only country behind the Iron Curtain that relied on Western support. It used Canadian CANDU technology to build the Cernavodă nuclear power plant.

Some planned projects along the Danube were relocated for geopolitical reasons. Some plans didn’t materialise due to geological complexities. Zwentendorf nuclear plant was completed but was never commissioned due to opposition to nuclear energy in Austria.

The Post-Cold War period

The end of the Cold War also led to a fundamental change in the governance of the Danube region. Transboundary cooperation and environmental concerns took centre stage. The landmark Gabčíkovo-Nagymaros Project Case, regarding a jointly agreed multipurpose hydropower project between Hungary and Czechoslovakia in 1977, emphasised that environmental norms are integral to river basin management. The establishment of the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River in 1998 further strengthened the case for sustainability. The European Union issued the Water Framework Directive, institutionalising an integrated river basin approach for water governance.

Contemporary concerns and present crisis

As a result of its history and geography, the Danube River has become one of the most energy-intensive basins, with hundreds of dams and several nuclear power plants.  These projects have generated both geopolitical and sustainability concerns time and again. However, the contemporary concern is not only about the impact of energy projects on the Danube, but also about how changes in the Danube water level impact the energy projects, as witnessed in 2022 and during the present crisis.

Announcements of new hydropower plants have raised alarms about their impact on other energy projects. For example, it is speculated that the revived plan for the Turnu Magurele- Nikopol hydropower project between Romania and Bulgaria, which was abandoned in the 1980s, could affect the downstream Cernavoda nuclear power plant in Romania. Issues such as riverbed erosion, persistent pollution, and threats to biodiversity are also crucial.

Conclusion

The Danube River highlights the water-energy nexus found across the world, perhaps more intensely than several other rivers. Historically, it has supported energy generation. However, with climate change and more frequent droughts, the changing river water levels are likely to have increasingly severe impacts on energy production. Hence, sustainable solutions are needed for a resilient energy system, as emergency measures such as sinking barges to maintain water levels and refiring coal power plants would not be lasting solutions.

(Chaitanya Deshpande is a PhD Scholar at Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.)