From border trade to BRICS: Why Xi’s September visit to India could be a watershed moment

Very few things of high value are traded at the high-altitude Lipulekh Pass that strategically straddles the border between India, China and Nepal. Yet when the pass was opened on August 1 for India-China border trading to resume after six long years during which the Galwan clash took place, it was possibly a sign of much better and bigger things to come and could turn out to be a harbinger of much warmth in New Delhi in September.

It is also indicative that trading activity would also resume at the other two border passes high up in the Himalayas—Shipki La in Himachal Pradesh and Nathu La in Sikkim.

But in itself, China President Xi Jinping’s planned visit to India for the BRICS Summit in September is a development replete with immense significance for India.

The geopolitical backdrop to the visit has three interesting facets. One, it is taking place at a time when the US footprint in West Asia is eroding—militarily, economically and politically. Two, an Indian realisation that the US has not been as potent an ally as it was made out to be. The unfriendly tariff structure towards India being a case in point. Three, India-China bilateral ties are taking a subtle northward move.

But first things first. At the moment, India is badly in need of fertilisers, the supply of which has been rudely disrupted by the Iran war and the Western sanctions on Russia. Traditionally, fertilisers for India were sourced from West Asia, chiefly Saudi Arabia and Oman, and Russia. But China is a world leader in fertiliser production, mainly of the essential nutrients like urea, phosphate, and NPK compound fertilisers. Indian and Chinese leaders would certainly not lose sight of this very vital fact.

Known as the ‘pharmacy of the world’, India is hugely dependent on China for its active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and key starting material (KSM). A friendly price regime would work wonders for the Indian coffers here.

But more importantly, it is the move towards a new security architecture that is being laid down in West Asia that has been caused by a waning influence of the US. Already somewhat sidelined by Pakistan’s successful positioning of a mediating role in the West Asia crisis, India would look to redeem itself, and China can actively aid that process.

Besides the obvious, India’s interest in West Asia is paramount also because its key trade routes traverse this geography. India already has friends in the region in the form of the UAE and Qatar and would only need a small fillip to energise itself. For China, weaning India away from the US is a big success. After all, the western nightmare is a joint tango by the elephant and the dragon, as together they house more than one-third of the world’s population, are among the world’s fastest-growing economies and steadily growing military powers.

This September could well turn out to be a watershed moment for the two Asian giants and a win-win situation for both.