Reports indicate Pakistan's interest in acquiring 40 Chinese J-35 fifth-generation fighter jets, a move that could significantly impact the military balance in the Indian subcontinent. However, Chinese experts suggest Beijing is hesitant to provide such advanced technology to Pakistan due to concerns about regional stability and its own strategic priorities, including the modernization of its naval air fleet. The J-35 is vital for China's carrier program, and exporting a large number could delay its own efforts and expose sensitive technology. A sale would likely depend on India acquiring similar capabilities or Pakistan facing a critical military threat.

Reports indicate Pakistan's interest in acquiring 40 Chinese J-35 fifth-generation fighter jets, a move that could significantly impact the military balance in the Indian subcontinent. However, Chinese experts suggest Beijing is hesitant to provide such advanced technology to Pakistan due to concerns about regional stability and its own strategic priorities, including the modernization of its naval air fleet. The J-35 is vital for China's carrier program, and exporting a large number could delay its own efforts and expose sensitive technology. A sale would likely depend on India acquiring similar capabilities or Pakistan facing a critical military threat.

Reports indicate Pakistan's interest in acquiring 40 Chinese J-35 fifth-generation fighter jets, a move that could significantly impact the military balance in the Indian subcontinent. However, Chinese experts suggest Beijing is hesitant to provide such advanced technology to Pakistan due to concerns about regional stability and its own strategic priorities, including the modernization of its naval air fleet. The J-35 is vital for China's carrier program, and exporting a large number could delay its own efforts and expose sensitive technology. A sale would likely depend on India acquiring similar capabilities or Pakistan facing a critical military threat.

For quite some time, there have been reports of Pakistan's plans to acquire 40 fifth-generation J-35 fighter jets from China, although there have been no confirmed reports of such a deal being inked.

If such a deal is signed and Pakistan receives the fighters from China, it would alter the balance of power in the Indian subcontinent, as India does not possess a fifth-generation fighter yet.

However, a Chinese expert argues that China, which has emerged as the biggest arms supplier to Pakistan, is hesitant to offer the fifth-generation fighter, and consequently a decisive military edge over India, to Islamabad.

Yang Xiaotong, an assistant researcher at a Beijing-based independent think tank, specialising in China-MENA (Middle East and North Africa) relations, argues in a recent article in The Diplomat that Beijing appears cautious about giving Pakistan a decisive military advantage over India as it would upset the strategic balance in the region and further destabilise an already fragile regional peace.

He notes that the induction of J-35 stealth fighters would significantly strengthen Pakistan's military capabilities, particularly as India currently has no fifth-generation fighters. Besides, China has little interest in being drawn into a conflict between two nuclear-armed neighbours in South Asia, especially when its primary strategic priorities lie in East Asia.

According to him, if Beijing decides to supply 40 J-35s to Pakistan, it could increase the likelihood of Islamabad seeking to alter the territorial status quo in Kashmir.

Another reason why the sale may not take place immediately is the fact that China prioritises its own interests. The J-35 is currently the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Air Force’s only carrier-capable fifth-generation fighter, and production is still ramping up as China seeks to equip its expanding aircraft carrier fleet amid strategic competition with the US.

Selling 40 aircraft to Pakistan could delay China's naval modernisation while also exposing sensitive technology to potential intelligence risks, considering that the presence of US personnel supporting Pakistan's F-16 fleet is frequent, he notes.

As China's most advanced combat aircraft, the J-35 carries far greater technological sensitivities than previous export platforms. This makes any overseas sale a far more consequential decision.

There is also the fact that Pakistan cannot afford these fighter jets without Chinese financial support, such as loans, as was the case with the J-10 sale. However, the analyst argues that China has no strategic incentive to do this.

According to him, Beijing is more likely to approve the sale to Pakistan if India acquires fifth-generation fighters or if Pakistan comes under severe military pressure in a conflict with India, in order to prevent a decisive Pakistani defeat and maintain its regional influence. 

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