In a war, brinkmanship is a deadly gamble where the aggressor pushes the conflict to absolute limits of safety. It was Dnipro City on November 21, 2024, and Lviv City on January 9, 2026. Less than six months later, on May 23-24, it was the turn of the Ukrainian capital Kiev to bear the devastating brunt of the ‘Oreshnik’ missile.
An intermediate-range intercontinental ballistic missile that is nuclear-capable, the Oreshnik—most likely launched from a mobile platform—is considered virtually unstoppable because of its high velocity of about 13,000 km per hour. The terminal phase exceeds 13 Mach or 13 times the speed of sound.
But what makes the Oreshnik even more dangerous is that it has six warheads—all configured to zero in on six different targets—much more deadlier than the Kinzhal missile, which has only one warhead.
With the use of the multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle technology, hypersonic speed, nuclear capability and targetting decision-making centres in the Ukrainian capital, Moscow has taken the ongoing conflict into new levels of intimidation and escalation.
Yet, the single Oreshnik was only part of a massive salvo of missiles and drones that comprised 90 missiles and 600 drones.
Ukrainian reports speak of two Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, three Zircon hypersonic missiles, 30 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, 54 Kh-101/Iskander-K/Kalibr cruise missiles and 600 Shahed, Gerbera, Italmas, and other drones being used in the massive attack.
Targeting Kyiv is also a psychological ploy aimed at overcoming Ukrainian resilience, as well as conveying the message that Russia can hit out heavily wherever it wants to in Ukraine.
The fact that the nuclear-capable missile reportedly carried only kinetic energy projectiles in place of conventional explosive payloads could lend credence to the view that it was used to “test and refine” Russia’s nuclear weapons delivery systems.
But the attack could also imply frustration at not being able to bring Ukraine to its knees and hide Russian reverses on the ground.