The Indian Army was entrusted with striking seven of the nine terror camps targeted during Operation Sindoor, while the Indian Air Force (IAF) was asked to target the other two situated deeper inside Pakistani territory, a study published by a Swiss military think tank claimed. The Centre d'Histoire et de Prospective Militaires (CHPM) said that one of the two Indian strike formations, composed of Rafale or Mirage 2000I aircraft, penetrated Pakistani airspace at a very low altitude to release precision-guided bombs on targets. It added that Pakistan instructed its defenders to target IAF Rafale jets because of their symbolic value.
According to the report, the Indian strike formation did not immediately return to safety after the bombs were released but stayed to "guide them until impact." In doing so, the aircraft deliberately exposed themselves to interception by Pakistani fighters and to engagement by ground-based air defence systems. The report states that the IAF enjoyed numerical superiority over its rival counterpart; even after reinforcements were scrambled, the PAF was outgunned eight to 26 in its own western skies. Meanwhile, Pakistani air traffic control ordered civilian traffic to divert from the area, preparing for the worst.
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Islamabad's Erieye —an Airborne Early Warning and Control System (AEW&C)—as well as ground-based radar stations, detected the approach of the IAF strike and diversion formations shortly after midnight. "Over the following twenty minutes, they identified eight distinct groups of six to eight aircraft each, concentrated along four main axes, totalling 60 aircraft, including 14 Rafales, soon reinforced by a further dozen combat aircraft," CHPM said.
Elaborating on the aerial face-off, the report added: "The PAF, which initially ran three combat air patrols (two of four and one of two aircraft), scrambled 32 additional fighters (F-16s, JF-17s, and J-10Cs) on quick reaction alert, most of which concentrated in the east of Pakistan’s airspace, from Lahore to east of Islamabad. The Erieye continued to orbit at the rear, over the Peshawar region, facing the two largest Indian concentrations. The PAF thus established a locally less unfavourable force ratio, with 24 Pakistani fighters confronting 28 Indian aircraft. Further west, however, only eight further fighters opposed a total of 26 Indian aircraft."
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Here is what the report said about the outcome of the strikes: "Indian aircraft launched a series of longrange munitions against the complex that housed the JeM headquarters at Bahawalpur, roughly one hundred kilometres from the border. Five distinct buildings were targeted, at least one of which was destroyed in the attack. At the same time, another formation released a second salvo of guided munitions against the LeT headquarters at Muridke. As this site lay only around thirty kilometres from the border, it was kept under observation by a drone, allowing for a more accurate post-strike battle damage assessment: at least two of the targeted buildings were confirmed to have been hit by penetration warheads."
Pakistan wanted to down as many Rafale jets as possible
The report said it is possible that New Delhi's intelligence wings were confident that Pakistan would continue adhering to its established practice of refraining from firing at aircraft outside Pakistani airspace. Indian pilots were, therefore, likely taken by surprise by long-range Pakistani fire while some were operating tens of kilometres from the border or the Line of Control. "The Chief of Air Staff of the Pakistan Air Force immediately instructed pilots operating over the eastern sector to engage the Indian aircraft, aiming to shoot down as many as possible while minimising their own exposure to return fire. Several J-10C and JF-17 fighters fired at least one salvo of PL-15 long-range air-to-air missiles, while an HQ-9 or HQ-16 surface-to-air missile battery also engaged Indian fighters. Pakistani forces concentrated their fire on the Rafale, designated as a priority target due to its symbolic value," CHPM said.
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Later, Islamabad claimed to have taken out six Indian aircraft over an hour-long sequence, including three Rafales, one Su-30MKI, and one MiG-29 inside Indian airspace, the report added.
In the report's abstract, CHPM said that the IAF managed to significantly degrade the enemy's air-defence system, then concluded the conflict by carrying out a series of spectacular strikes against Pakistan’s principal Air Force stations. "Thus, by achieving clear air superiority, India coerced Islamabad into requesting a ceasefire."
YOU CAN READ THE SWISS THINK TANK’S REPORT HERE
What is CHPM?
Founded in 1969, the Centre d'Histoire et de Prospective Militaires (CHPM) is an independent research centre that promotes studies dedicated to military history and thinking, and reportedly offers training in strategic and security studies.