Soon after President Vladimir Putin’s four-engined, long-range Ilyushin Il-96-300PU touches down at the tarmac of the Indian Air Force base at Delhi’s Palam area on Thursday, after a small break, Putin will leave for a dinner with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
And it is at the dinner table where the two leaders will have the most substantial discussion—be it on defence, energy, labour mobility or on global issues like Ukraine and the US’ belligerent posture against Venezuela.
The handshakes, hugs and personal chemistry between the two leaders at the dinner table will be something for the world to talk about.
The agreed points on the top agenda—defence—will not be part of the public announcements the next day as defence deals are not declared openly. But the military domain will occupy primacy in the minds of both leaders. Faced with the challenge of depleting fighter aircraft, how can Russia contribute? How much technology transfers can Russia make for the many military platforms that India is pursuing? How can the supply of S-400 air defence missile systems be expedited? These are likely to be talked about.
Then there is the energy supply issue. How can oil supplies from Russia be continued or curtailed, given the pressure mounted by the US on India? It would all boil down to how much give-and-take takes place and how much India can resist and how much it can concede.
But the objective of the presidential visit is something else too. It is the battle of establishing narratives and demonstrating optics for the world in general and the US-led West in particular.
Putin’s visit, despite being hounded by an International Criminal Court arrest warrant, is to lay down Russia’s proximity with India in the backdrop of increasing pressure being exerted upon India by the US to side with the US-led West in the ongoing tussle between the rival blocks of the US and Sino-Russian axis for extending their respective spheres of Influence.
For India, it is a powerful depiction of its policy of strategic autonomy, which means maintaining equidistance from powerful blocs with only national interest being the guiding principle.
The dinner diplomacy will pave the way for the next day when Putin meets the President Droupadi Murmu at 11 AM before proceeding to Rajghat to lay a wreath at the Mahatma Gandhi memorial. The Russian President will meet PM Modi again at 11:50 AM. In just two hours' time, the press statements along with the list of outcomes will be declared.
With no major announcements to be publicly made on defence agreements, the key agreement that will be highlighted will be the pact on labour mobility. With Russia suffering from a scarcity of manpower, this will be a mechanism to enhance the presence of skilled and semi-skilled Indian manpower in Russia, which will seek to establish a framework for legal migration and protect workers’ rights.
