EXPLAINED: What Marco Rubio said in India, and what he meant

Weeks, not (even) months away. That was US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s message about the still-pending India-US Bilateral Treaty Agreement (BTA) during his trip to India this week.

But, inadvertently, Rubio also added strength to the whispers of how the BTA has been stuck in the anchor lap for some time now, ostensibly over certain wordings and what they stand for. Formally announced in February and in the works for years, the BTA continues to tantalise.

In Mumbai, Rubio sounded optimistic, saying that the deal with “happen shortly”, saying: “(I will) hopefully have some good news to share fairly soon. And perhaps the leaders can sign it thereafter.”

In an interview with a leading newspaper, the Secretary of State assured “99% of the work is done” and that he felt “very positive of the trajectory that it’s on”.

However, Rubio frayed nerves by breezing over the pain points in India-US relationships and the trade imbroglio both nations have been stuck at since Trump unleashed his tariff tantrum in April 2025. Tariffs?” Not to punish India.” Visa restrictions? “Not targeted at India.” Russian oil legislation? “To be managed carefully.”

However, it might just appear that America’s, and in particular Rubio’s visit to India itself, was not really focused on the BTA as much as it was on getting business done. Not the business of bilateral relations, but the actual business of business.

The very fact that this is his second visit in just four months, as well as him quipping that he will be back in three months’ time, hints at what America really wants out of the equation – more business for its technology companies, as well as buying of more fuel from Washington.

That he skipped New Delhi in favour of Jamnagar wasn’t lost on anyone. Rubio’s detour into Reliance country is essentially to work out the extent of possibilities of refining Venezuelan crude, which is in America’s control, by Reliance. President Trump had recently announced the first ever greenfield oil refinery in mainland USA in half a century, in partnership with Reliance.

The ‘America First Refining’ project at the Port of Brownsville, Texas, described by Trump as a $300 billion deal, will check all the boxes for Trump – fulfil his election promise of bringing capital investment, manufacturing and very importantly, jobs, back to America, while also solving neatly the requirement of a base to refine all the crude from Venezuela that Washington now has at its disposal. Whether part of it, or most of it until the American facility gets off the ground, comes to Jamnagar or not, is something that would be confirmed once the modalities of the Jamnagar sojourn become public.

The long-pending India-US BTA has been on a roller-coaster ever since Trump started playing arithmetic with tariffs in the spring of 2025. At one point he had threatened as much as 50 per cent tariffs on Indian exports, before backing down thanks to nimble negotiations as well as a clapback from US Courts. While a formal deal had been announced as much as eight months ago, the fact that Modi and Trump are yet to sign it, is because of chokepoints, and not strictly those limited to the language of the draft.