India closed the financial year 2025-26 with a rare blimp in an otherwise impressive growth story. The combined Index of Eight Core Industries (ICI), which tracks eight sectors that together make up 40.27 per cent of the broader Index of Industrial Production, declined 0.4 per cent year-on-year in March 2026 on a provisional basis, data released by the Union Ministry of Commerce & Industry revealed. It is the first such dip in five months, and the lowest in 19 months.
The numbers tell a story of two Indias. In one India, steel production rose 2.2 per cent, cement climbed 4 per cent, and natural gas surged 6.4 per cent, its fastest growth in 22 months.
In the other India, the energy and agriculture supply chains are under visible strain. Coal output fell 4 per cent, crude oil production declined 5.7 per cent, and electricity generation dipped 0.5 per cent. The sharpest blow came from fertilisers, down a staggering 24.6 per cent year-on-year in March, the steepest decline recorded in this data series with a base year of 2011-12.
According to economists, the US–Iran war impacted gas supply to the fertiliser industry in its initial days. That supply has since recovered to around 95 per cent, but the damage to March numbers was already done.
For the full financial year 2025-26, provisional ICI growth came in at 2.6 per cent, a five-year low. In FY25, growth was 4.5 per cent, and in FY24, it was 7.6 per cent. Steel, which was up 9.1 per cent for the year, and cement (up 8.6 per cent), once again, held the ICI numbers together.