The International Monetary Fund has put India's growth rate at 6.7 per cent in the current financial year and expects it to go up gradually to 7.8 per cent by 2020-21. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has estimated the GDP growth rate to be 7.4 per cent by 2018. Nearer home, unfazed by these statistics, the NITI Aayog expects the current year figure to be 7.5 per cent.
A NITI Aayog scholar said the difference should not be “ a serious issue to be dissected at present”.
NITI Aayog, the government think tank, believes that a GDP figure of 10 per cent by 2022 is “realist and possible, and that is our goal”. The Aayog vice-chairman Rajiv Kumar said at a book release function a couple of days ago that their roadmap for growth is till 2022, and the aim is for the country to average 8.5 per cent growth in the five years to that deadline. This, he said, implies they have to touch 10 per cent in the next four years.
Dr Kumar oozed confidence and said it was possible, with a development model that, while based on capitalism, is designed in India.
Part of India's optimism on a higher growth rate in the next two years is based on the restructured bank balance sheets and gains from the GST. The monsoon dependent agriculture, and poor rate of turnover of industry, particularly the MSMEs, and the fact that jobs are not visible, may however have their own impact.
The NITI Aayog will have an advanced technology platform on PPP model, to interpret the data on government performance and help it build models for accelerated growth.