Can Punjab Congress overcome infighting to win in 2027?

A few days ago, the Punjab Congress convened a well-attended meeting in Bathinda as part of its nine-day Har Booth Mazboot (make every booth strong) campaign. But when the party’s state president Amarinder Singh Raja Warring rose to address the gathering, nearly a third of the attendees walked out, with some raising slogans against him.

Similar episodes of discontent were visible at many other meetings meant to strengthen the party machinery at the grassroots. A section of partymen wants former Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi to replace Warring, despite the party high command endorsing the current chief. Former Chhattisgarh chief minister Bhupesh Baghel, the party’s state in-charge, has been insisting that a leadership change is out of the question.

Punjab is probably the Congress’s best bet among the seven states going to the polls in 2027. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which rules the state, no longer enjoys the popularity that brought it to power in 2022. The Shiromani Akali Dal has lost much of its political heft. The BJP, despite expanding its footprint in the state, is still searching for a broader local connection and a leader with pan-Punjab appeal.

Punjab’s electoral map is broadly divided into three regions—Malwa (69 seats), Majha (25), and Doaba (23). In 2022, the AAP swept Malwa by winning 66 seats, and managed 26 seats from the other two.

Ashutosh Kumar, professor of political science at Panjab University, said the AAP government could not address some of the state’s persistent problems, which has opened up space for its rivals. “The result could be a four-cornered contest—and potentially even a five-way battle if Waris Punjab De builds on the space created by the Akali Dal’s decline. In such a fragmented contest, a party securing around 25 to 30 per cent of the votes could win,” he said.

That gives the Congress an edge. The party continues to maintain a traditional vote base in the state, a deep grassroots network across the rural belt, and a pool of experienced leaders with an ideological connection to the electorate. After its rout in the 2022 Assembly elections, the party improved its vote share from 23 per cent to 26.39 per cent in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, winning seven of the state’s 13 seats. The AAP, meanwhile, saw its vote share fall sharply from around 42 per cent to 26.16 per cent.

Turf wars are nothing new in Punjab Congress. “From the 1980s, when Giani Zail Singh and Darbara Singh represented rival camps, such rivalries have been a constant within the party,” said Jaspal Singh, a political analyst. “Once ticket distribution begins, the party leaders could come to common terms and work together. That seems to be the only applicable assessment keeping the past in view.”

In 1992, the Congress returned to power despite the fierce rivalry between Darbara Singh, who served as chief minister from 1980 to 1983, and Beant Singh. A decade later, in 2002, the Congress again overcame internal divisions—this time between Captain Amarinder Singh and Rajinder Kaur Bhattal—to win 62 seats and form the government. After defeats in 2007 and 2012, the party returned to power with 77 seats in 2017 against the backdrop of intense tensions between Partap Singh Bajwa and Amarinder Singh.

“What we should understand is that the Congress is a resilient force in Punjab and it has always come back to power, even in times of factionalism,” said Jasbir Gill, a former Lok Sabha member.

The party has been sending subtle messages to disgruntled leaders, pointing to the fate of those who left the Congress for the BJP. Sunil Jakhar, Amarinder Singh, and Ravneet Singh Bittu have substantially diminished political standing in the saffron camp. Bittu lost the 2024 Lok Sabha election from Ludhiana after joining the BJP, while Amarinder Singh and Jakhar have remained largely outside the electoral spotlight since their switch.

The BJP, meanwhile, is trying to fix the gaps in its strategy. “We are preparing on two fronts—organisationally and politically,” said Vineet Joshi, state media head of the party. “Organisationally, our Shakti Kendra network, with each centre overseeing four booths, is almost complete. We are now working on booth committees. On the political front, we are identifying and taking up issues that have a sustained impact on the ground.”

The Congress, on the other hand, is trying to balance its caste arithmetic. Channi gives the party a strong dalit face, representing a community that constitutes 32 per cent of the state’s population, while Warring, a Jat leader, helps maintain its connection with a politically influential constituency. The party is keen not to repeat its mistake in Haryana, where over-reliance on Jat leader Bhupendra Hooda, sidelining Dalit leader Selja Kumari, sent a negative signal to backward castes, contributing to its defeat in the assembly elections.

For the AAP, this is a do-or-die election. If it loses Punjab, its ambition for expansion could quickly turn into a defensive struggle to protect its political turf.

While the Congress may have the organisational might, a favourable caste mix and the political space to return to power, internal bickering could be its undoing. In a four-cornered contest where a few percentage points can decide the winner, divisions could prove more consequential than in the past.