BJP's bypoll woes: Bankipur, Datia losses a sign of deeper troubles?

Bankipur sits on the southern bank of the Ganga, in the heart of Patna. It is among the city’s oldest neighbourhoods, where colonial-era landmarks such as Patna University, Golghar, Gandhi Maidan and the old Patna Museum coexist with the grand new Bihar Museum, designed by a Japanese architect. Together, they reflect the city’s continuing evolution.

It is also home to the state’s administrative elite, old families and educated middle class, who are known for their affinity for political stability. In its pre-delimitation avatar as Patna West, the seat even produced two chief ministers.

For nearly three decades, despite upheavals in Bihar’s politics, Bankipur remained one of BJP’s safest assembly seats. Since 1995, it had been represented first by Nabin Kishore Prasad Sinha and later by his son, Nitin Nabin. Now the BJP’s national president, Nabin first won the seat in a 2006 byelection and retained it in every subsequent election before vacating it earlier this year after shifting to national politics.

The byelection was widely expected to be another comfortable BJP victory. Instead, it produced one of the biggest political surprises of the year. Coupled with the BJP’s loss in Datia, Madhya Pradesh, and a reduced victory margin in Manjalpur, Gujarat, it deepened the party’s electoral anxieties.

Bankipur, predictably, has attracted more attention. Prashant Kishor, contesting his first election after spending nearly two decades as a political strategist, defeated the BJP by over 19,000 votes, securing the first electoral victory for his Jan Suraaj Party (JSP). The JSP had drawn a blank in the assembly polls last year, with 236 of its 238 candidates losing deposits. Its candidate in Bankipur had secured less than 5 per cent of votes then.

This time, to match the war machinery, the JSP set up addas at 422 booths, deputing 20 workers to each booth. Their job was to ensure that each voter cast his ballot, helping the party beat the BJP’s booth management. The election result is significant not only because the BJP lost one of its strongest urban bastions, but also because it happened just six months after the party had its first chief minister in the state: Samrat Choudhary.

The campaign unfolded against the backdrop of student protests over examination paper leaks, police action against demonstrators, and the resignation of Union education minister Dharmendra Pradhan. Within both the ruling alliance and the opposition, there is a growing belief that Gen Z anger influenced the electoral outcome, even if the scale of its impact cannot be quantified.

The protests cast a shadow on the other bypolls in BJP-ruled states: Datia in Madhya Pradesh and Manjalpur in Gujarat. The Congress managed to retain Datia, once the pocket borough of former state home minister Narottam Mishra, while the BJP held on to Manjalpur with a reduced margin. Opposition parties were quick to argue that the national mood had changed, while the BJP insisted local factors had shaped the contests.

But Bankipur dominated the political conversation. Many expect Kishor’s entry into the assembly to reshape Bihar’s entrenched caste equations and unsettle both the BJP and the opposition.

“We see Bankipur as a black swan moment in Bihar politics,” said Vivek Kumar, spokesperson and founding member of the JSP. “Nothing has changed in Bankipur in the past six months except the BJP’s own decision to replace the mandate people had voted for. People elected Nitish Kumar [as chief minister], but the BJP replaced him with Choudhary.”

The numbers underline the scale of the shift. In the 2025 assembly polls, the BJP secured more than 62 per cent of votes in Bankipur. In the bypoll, its vote share fell to 34 per cent. Many believe Kishor drew support from Bankipur’s educated, upper-caste and middle-class electorate. “The student protests also played a part,” said a BJP leader. “Since it was a personality-driven seat, when he [Nabin] exited the outcome changed.”

The polling took place days after Pradhan resigned and student protests rocked Patna. The middle class, which has traditionally supported the BJP, felt the impact. Within the party, the result has forced introspection. Many leaders fear that opposition parties in different states could capitalise on this sentiment.

The Bankipur result also raises questions for the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), as its candidate, Rekha Kumari, lost her deposit after her vote share dropped from 30 per cent to 10. The increasing political attention that Kishor is likely to get poses a challenge to established parties. Tejashwi Yadav of the RJD and Chirag Paswan of the Lok Janshakti Party have been working hard to position themselves as the state’s youth leaders. With Kishor’s entry, they may have to rethink their strategy.

The BJP has sought to play down the significance of the results. Party spokesperson Guru Prakash said bypolls should not be seen as a verdict on a government. “Our top leadership will sit, carry out a detailed process of consultation, and then [make] amendments after identifying what went wrong,” he said.

The process is likely to be played out 900 kilometres away, in Datia, as well. The seat had been held for three terms by Narottam Mishra, former Madhya Pradesh home minister and one of the BJP’s most recognisable faces in the Bundelkhand region. Known for his controversial statements, Mishra was denied a ticket this time. Sources say the resentment played a role in the outcome.

The Congress campaign was hardly smooth. After its incumbent MLA Rajendra Bharti was disqualified, necessitating the bypoll, the Congress fielded former MLA Ghanshyam Singh. It then expelled Bharti on charges of anti-party activity just hours before counting began. Still, the Congress was able to keep its campaign focused on local issues affecting farmers, backward communities and youth, including jobs and employment.

“[The denial of ticket to Mishra] indirectly helped us,” said Umang Singhar, leader of opposition in the assembly. “Anti-incumbency, because of the issues of farmers and tribals, and employment and examination scams, played a role. Also, people did not want a return of Mishra’s intimidating style.”

The assembly polls in both Madhya Pradesh and Bihar had given massive mandates to BJP-led alliances. But, since then, both states have seen new chief ministers and state party presidents. The BJP now faces the challenge of getting its next-generation leadership accepted by both the cadre and the electorate.

Within the Congress, the victory in Datia indicates that the party’s efforts to emerge from the shadow of veterans such as Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh and build a new state leadership under Jitu Patwari is beginning to bear fruit.

“The larger emotion that the Gen Z movement created at the national level was reflected here,” said party leader Vikram Chaudhary. “[It added to] the strong sentiment among farmers, who are alienated from the state government. We are witnessing a mood shift. The poll performance has provided a strong booster dose for the state leadership, making booth management competitive against the BJP.”

The BJP, however, maintains that the results should not be read as a verdict on national politics. “Bypolls are not chiefly an indication of people’s faith in the dispensation,” said Guru Prakash.

Notably, the turnout in Bankipur was only 34 per cent, well below the 41 per cent recorded in the general election. This low figure in a stronghold indicates that the cadre may have become complacent, costing the party. Nevertheless, the results in Bankipur and Datia have set alarm bells ringing within the BJP, with calls for course correction likely to gain momentum.