Why PoK’s anti-Pakistan uprising is a missed opportunity for India

The events unfolding in Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir since June this year represent one of the most significant political upheavals in the region in decades. The present crisis began in earnest on June 5, when Pakistan launched ‘the second military invasion’ of what remains of the erstwhile princely state of Jammu and Kashmir. The first, of course, occurred on October 22, 1947, when Pakistani forces, accompanied by Pashtun tribal militias from the North-West Frontier, crossed into the state, setting in motion a conflict that continues to shape South Asian politics.

According to reports circulating among activists and local observers, approximately 16,000 security personnel were deployed across PoK. It came in response to the Joint Awami Action Committee’s (JAAC) announcement of a general strike and a planned Long March to Muzaffarabad scheduled for June 9. Arrests started on June 6, with scores of JAAC activists detained across the territory. Rather than discouraging dissent, however, these arrests galvanised public mobilisation.

Perhaps the most remarkable feature of the movement has been the unprecedented participation of young women. Across Rawalakot, Muzaffarabad, Mirpur, Bagh and other towns, thousands of women have stood alongside male protesters, transforming what might otherwise have remained a conventional political agitation into a broader social movement. Their presence has challenged long-held assumptions about political participation in PoK.

The immediate catalyst for the current unrest occurred in Rawalakot, where JAAC leader Mullah Umer Nazir Kashmiri was prevented from travelling to Muzaffarabad. During the confrontation that followed, he sustained injuries while escaping. His driver and associate, Shahzeb, was fatally shot, while several others were injured. That incident ignited demonstrations almost overnight. It also resonated strongly with the more than one million people of Kashmiri origin living in the United Kingdom, many of whom maintain close family ties with the region. Since then, roads leading towards Muzaffarabad have repeatedly been blocked by protesters seeking to prevent security forces from moving freely.

As a consequence, Rawalakot has emerged as the symbolic heart of the movement. Approximately 80,000 protesters continue to participate in sit-ins spread across multiple locations throughout the city.

The movement reached its symbolic peak on July 5, when Kashmir Solidarity Day was observed across PoK and within the British Kashmiri diaspora. Demonstrations took place throughout the territory, while in London large crowds gathered outside the Pakistani High Commission and near Westminster. Protest organisers claimed attendance reaching tens of thousands. On the same day, reports indicated that three protesters lost their lives in separate incidents in Dadyal, Muzaffarabad and Rawalakot.

In Rawalakot itself, security forces reportedly attempted an early-morning operation to dismantle one of the principal protest camps. The operation failed largely because the demonstrators had spent days preparing defensive roadblocks using felled trees, boulders and other obstacles that prevented armoured vehicles from reaching the sit-in locations.

Yet tactical successes cannot disguise the movement’s growing strategic dilemma. Many of JAAC’s local and central leaders are now either detained or operating under severe restrictions. Those still publicly active continue to frame the crisis primarily as one of governance failures while stopping short of directing public anger towards Pakistan’s military establishment itself.

This, I believe, is the movement’s greatest weakness.

For those, like myself, who support the reunification of the entire former princely state with India, this represents a historic missed opportunity. A civil rights movement, however courageous, can only achieve so much if it lacks a long-term political destination. Today, the protesters find themselves increasingly concentrated in Rawalakot while facing overwhelming state power. They have demonstrated resilience, discipline and remarkable courage, but courage alone rarely overcomes superior force indefinitely.

At the same time, I believe India has shown little inclination to capitalise politically or diplomatically on the growing dissatisfaction within PoK. New Delhi has remained largely silent during one of the most sustained episodes of public unrest witnessed in the territory in recent years.

If that silence continues, the prospect of fundamentally altering the status quo may diminish once again.

Amjad Ayub Mirza is a human rights activist from Mirpur, PoK. He currently lives in exile in the UK.