‘We have identified 2,500 military targets...’: Reuven Azar, Israeli ambassador to India

Interview/ Reuven Azar, Israeli ambassador to India

Q/ What would you outline as American conditions at this point in time and, from the Israeli point of view, are you even hopeful?

I do not know what the conditions set by the US are today, but I think President Donald Trump was pretty clear that he sees a situation where this operation could prolong for weeks. It is up to the Iranians to decide whether they want to go back to the negotiating table, this time under the conditions set by the US. These conditions cover the nuclear programme, ballistic missiles, and support for proxy groups—that path remains open. But the US has now made it clear that it wants regime change, and until then, action is deemed necessary. Now the question is whether this change will take place inside the regime, or result in the removal of the entire leadership. In Venezuela, it was easily done, with the people in power leaving, but it is different in Iran because the military operation has already removed several senior military decision-makers, and it is up to the Iranians to decide if they want this to continue or stop.

Q/ Beyond the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei, what is the specific plan to ensure a transition to a stable, friendly government? Is there not a high risk that a vacuum will be filled by more radical elements within the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps?

The idea that a more radical leadership would replace the current regime is unlikely—the present leadership is already among the most hardline elements. I think people have to be reminded that Ayatollah Khamenei was the most radical element within the Iranian regime. All the people calling for modern or reformist policies in the last few decades were targeted. Reformist voices had been suppressed, and leaders were placed under house arrest. The entire regime was filled with people as radical as him. So to think Iran can have a more radical regime after this is a bridge too far.

Q/ What is the specific “end state” Israel is looking for, and how confident is Israel that Iran’s nuclear breakout capability has been permanently neutralised?

We have identified approximately 2,500 military targets, and we are conducting operations against them as we speak. At the conclusion of operations, we are aiming—together with the US—to completely neutralise the two existential threats from Iran’s ballistic missile programme and military nuclear programme.

Of course, in the medium and long term, if there is a change in regime, these programmes won’t be reinstated. However, if the regime remains unchanged, there remains a risk that these capabilities could be rebuilt. That is why both Israel and the US—unlike in the operation in June—have expanded the objectives this time and are calling on the Iranian people to seize the opportunity for change.

Q/ The US and Israel have expressed hope for an internal uprising, but history shows such strikes can often lead to a “rally around the flag” effect. Why do you believe this time will result in liberation rather than further radicalisation?

We are not prophets. We are also not in the place of the Iranian people, so ultimately it is up to them. But I think after the regime has demonstrated its ruthlessness with the killing of tens of thousands during past protest waves, more Iranians now understand that this regime does not serve their interests. Of course, there are a handful of hardcore supporters of the regime, but the question is whether they will continue to have the capability to oppress and kill those who want freedom. I don’t have an answer for that.

Q/ Iran has been targeting Gulf travel hubs. Will Israel intervene to protect its new regional partners in the Abraham Accords?

Israel is already acting to protect its regional partners because we are now over the skies of Iran, and are hunting the missile launchers. We are planning the defence of the entire West Asian region together with our American friends and other friendly armies in the region.

Q/ With the Strait of Hormuz effectively blocked and oil prices soaring, what is Israel’s strategy to mitigate a global economic meltdown that could turn international opinion against the objectives you are trying to achieve?

When it comes to international opinion, I think we are in a very good situation. We have seen many countries condemning Iran, and we have seen more and more countries joining to show support for the action against the Iranian regime. When it comes to the global oil market, I think the US has taken into account the possibility that prices will go up temporarily. But unlike the situation in the 1970s and 1990s, the capability of the Iranians to affect the oil market in the long term is pretty limited, both because the military options are going to diminish as time goes by and the ability to close the Strait of Hormuz is going to be non-existent. Right now, the diminishing of the movement of ships in the strait is a precautionary act that many companies are taking, and they are going to wait and see how this develops in the coming weeks and then take a decision on whether to allow ships to continue flowing.

Q/ Projects like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) were built on the promise of regional stability. With a regional war in full swing, do you concede such ambitious connectivity projects face a huge challenge?

The fact that we are taking care of the Iranian threat is going to make the possibility of IMEC and other regional projects much higher. Because, in the past, many countries were hesitating whether to enter into projects in the region, fearing the military build-up that was happening in Iran and other places as a result of the Iranian regime’s effort to put pressure on the Arab Gulf countries…. If the ongoing military campaign manages to neutralise the Iranian threat, prospects for executing projects like IMEC become significantly higher.

Q/ We recently saw Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Israel, days before the military strikes on Iran. Do you think India’s position has shifted from neutrality to a strategic alignment with Israel, and what has driven this change?

India’s policy is in line with its own interests, and it is up to India to align with this country or another. What happened during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit was that we substantially upgraded our strategic cooperation. We call it a Special Strategic Partnership, as we have reached agreements that are going to allow us to cooperate more deeply in creating solutions on the defence and security side and serve our interests. It comes at an opportune time because both India and Israel face challenges from radical forces and both countries are embracing the future by creating the competitive edge that we need in order to succeed on the world stage.