Following Morocco's unprecedented World Cup semifinal run in 2022, the article explores potential successors to their dark horse status, identifying the US, Turkey, Switzerland, Norway, Austria, Japan, Colombia, and Ecuador as strong contenders. While the US has a talented squad, tactical issues and a lack of high-level success temper optimism despite their host advantage. Turkey, with their quality and recent deep runs, and Switzerland, boasting a balanced squad and stable coaching, are well-positioned, though potential knockout matchups against strong third-placed teams, possibly including Norway, pose challenges. Norway relies on individual brilliance from players like Haaland and Odegaard, while Austria's strength lies in Ralf Rangnick's systematic approach, though a lack of decisive quality remains a concern. Japan is highlighted as the strongest dark horse, with numerous European-based players and a proven ability to challenge top teams. Colombia has seen a resurgence with strong performances in the Copa America and World Cup qualifiers, possessing key talents like James Rodriguez and Luis Diaz. Finally, Ecuador's exceptional defensive solidity, built around talents like Moises Caicedo, Willian Pacho, and Piero Hincapie, makes them a formidable dark horse capable of topping their group and potentially exceeding their past best finish.

Following Morocco's unprecedented World Cup semifinal run in 2022, the article explores potential successors to their dark horse status, identifying the US, Turkey, Switzerland, Norway, Austria, Japan, Colombia, and Ecuador as strong contenders. While the US has a talented squad, tactical issues and a lack of high-level success temper optimism despite their host advantage. Turkey, with their quality and recent deep runs, and Switzerland, boasting a balanced squad and stable coaching, are well-positioned, though potential knockout matchups against strong third-placed teams, possibly including Norway, pose challenges. Norway relies on individual brilliance from players like Haaland and Odegaard, while Austria's strength lies in Ralf Rangnick's systematic approach, though a lack of decisive quality remains a concern. Japan is highlighted as the strongest dark horse, with numerous European-based players and a proven ability to challenge top teams. Colombia has seen a resurgence with strong performances in the Copa America and World Cup qualifiers, possessing key talents like James Rodriguez and Luis Diaz. Finally, Ecuador's exceptional defensive solidity, built around talents like Moises Caicedo, Willian Pacho, and Piero Hincapie, makes them a formidable dark horse capable of topping their group and potentially exceeding their past best finish.

Following Morocco's unprecedented World Cup semifinal run in 2022, the article explores potential successors to their dark horse status, identifying the US, Turkey, Switzerland, Norway, Austria, Japan, Colombia, and Ecuador as strong contenders. While the US has a talented squad, tactical issues and a lack of high-level success temper optimism despite their host advantage. Turkey, with their quality and recent deep runs, and Switzerland, boasting a balanced squad and stable coaching, are well-positioned, though potential knockout matchups against strong third-placed teams, possibly including Norway, pose challenges. Norway relies on individual brilliance from players like Haaland and Odegaard, while Austria's strength lies in Ralf Rangnick's systematic approach, though a lack of decisive quality remains a concern. Japan is highlighted as the strongest dark horse, with numerous European-based players and a proven ability to challenge top teams. Colombia has seen a resurgence with strong performances in the Copa America and World Cup qualifiers, possessing key talents like James Rodriguez and Luis Diaz. Finally, Ecuador's exceptional defensive solidity, built around talents like Moises Caicedo, Willian Pacho, and Piero Hincapie, makes them a formidable dark horse capable of topping their group and potentially exceeding their past best finish.

Morocco defied all expectations at Qatar 2022, beating Belgium and eliminating Spain and Portugal to become the first African team to reach a World Cup semifinal. Four years on, they are ranked eighth in the world and are, in theory, on the cusp of breaking into the top five. So, despite changing their era-defining coach, they now occupy a space between dark horses and contenders.

Who, then, will take up the mantle? Options are not in short supply. The US, Turkey, Switzerland, Norway, Austria, Japan, Colombia and Ecuador are all among the names doing the rounds, and in most cases the hype is deserved. The primary hosts may be an exception. Though the US have a strong squad on paper—17 of 26 play in Europe—optimism is not high. Mauricio Pochettino’s high-pressing system has not taken root. But, host advantage cannot be ignored, and there is a chance the occasion might spur the team to greater heights. Their best finish, discounting third place in 1930, is the quarterfinals in 2002.

If the US do not get their act together, Turkey stand to benefit directly. Also in Group D, their quality gives them a genuine chance of topping it. The group winner faces one of the third-placed teams in the round of 32, though that could yet be one of the stronger sides. Turkey are no strangers to deep runs—they finished third at their last appearance, also in 2002.

Switzerland arrive in good shape: a balanced squad, a settled coach in his fifth year in the job and a favourable group. Their best finish was the quarterfinals in 1954, and they have a real chance of topping Group B. Like Group D’s winners, however, they could meet a strong third-placed team in the first knockout round—for winners of both Group D and B, the reward could potentially be Erling Haaland’s Norway.

The Norwegians have been in fine form and are far from a one-man team. The goal-hungry No. 9 will be fed by captain Martin Odegaard and the precise-crossing right-back Julian Ryerson. Group I, with France and Senegal, is the challenge, but third place looks likely at minimum, and Norway—whose best finish is the round of 16, in 1938 and 1998—will fancy themselves against most opponents in the early knockout stages.

Ecuador are unbeaten in 18 games across nearly two years, having conceded just six goals | AP

Where Norway’s strength lies in individual quality, Austria’s lies in system. Expected to finish at least second behind Argentina in Group J, they have been transformed since Ralf Rangnick—the progenitor of ‘gegenpressing’—took charge in 2022. What has been lacking, as their Euro 2024 round-of-16 defeat to Turkey illustrated after a dominant display, is genuine quality in decisive moments.

Japan do not have that problem. Considered the strongest dark horses at this tournament, they have 23 players based in Europe and are capable of beating almost anyone on their day, as England found out in March. Their best finish is the round of 16—in 2002, 2010, 2018 and 2022—and at the last two editions they were unlucky not to reach the quarterfinals. Expectations are higher this time. It would not be inconceivable for Japan to pip the Netherlands to top spot in Group F, setting up a round-of-32 clash against Morocco—or, if current form is the sole criterion, Brazil, whom Japan beat 3-2 last October.

Colombia have enjoyed a resurgence since failing to qualify in 2022, finishing runners-up at the 2024 Copa America and third in South American qualifying, ahead of Uruguay and Brazil. Their best finish was the quarterfinals in 2014, when James Rodriguez announced himself to the world. He is still around, alongside one of the game’s best wingers in Luis Diaz. Expected to finish at least second behind Portugal in Group K, they should face a winnable round-of-32 fixture against Croatia.

The reason Colombia were pushed to third in South American qualifying was Ecuador, who lost only twice in 18 matches to finish second behind Argentina. They conceded five goals across those 18 games and are unbeaten in their last 18 matches overall—spanning nearly two years—conceding just six. That defensive solidity is no accident. Moises Caicedo, Chelsea’s £100m signing, sits in front of a back line featuring Paris Saint-Germain’s Willian Pacho and Arsenal’s Piero Hincapie, both of whom starred in the Champions League final on May 30. Ecuador are more than capable of topping Group E ahead of Germany, which would set up a knockout fixture against a relatively weaker third-placed side. At minimum, they should match their best result—the round of 16 in 2006. But can they go further? Is an extraordinary defence alone enough to go deep at a major tournament? Just ask the Greeks, who defended stoutly and won Euro 2004.

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