Will Sabarimala rath yatra help BJP gain electoral ground in Kerala?

At mid-noon in Kasargode, the north Kerala sun was fierce and unrelenting. Atop an empty podium, an ironically redundant ‘crowd-warmer’ alternated between Malayalam and Tulu, delivering a heated sermon peppered with keywords like communists, temples, Sabarimala and traditions. The surroundings shimmered orange, less to do with the heat and more with the saffron decor—associated with the Sangh, the BJP, and the extended parivar—and ubiquitous black and orange ‘Save Sabarimala’ t-shirts and headscarves. Sabarimala, a hill shrine in central Kerala, had become the epicentre of a political quake, after a momentous Supreme Court verdict allowing women of menstruating age to enter the shrine. The ruling queered the pitch, upending traditional political delineations, and caste and religious equations, as friends turned foes, and foes turned strange bedfellows.

The RSS, which initially welcomed the verdict, quickly changed its tune after what it perceived to be a mass outpouring of dismay from devotees at the court ruling. The CPI(M) stood firm on its decision to implement the verdict. But, when in the past the party has chided its top leaders for open displays of faith, the state secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishnan himself had to assure the devotees the party was not against them; Believers walk amongst us too, he said in a public address. The Congress stance was even more muddled. National president Rahul Gandhi welcomed the verdict as a step towards gender equality, while the state unit adopted a diametrically opposite stance. The United Democratic Front (UDF)—with its major constituents like the Congress and the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML)—said it stood firmly by the side of the devotees. Outlier figures like activist Rahul Easwar, who was the face of the initial stages of Sabarimala protest, were soon detained and put behind bars.

The BJP, on its part, had announced it was embarking on a rath yatra (modelled after senior BJP leader L.K. Advani’s 1990 Ayodhya Ram temple campaign) from Madhur Siddhi Vinayaka Temple in Kasargode to Pathanamthitta district where Sabarimala is located. It was symbolism galore. According to legends, Tipu Sultan tried to conquer Siddhi Vinayaka Temple and failed. "Pinarayi Vijayan is our modern day Tipu Sultan who is trying to destroy Sabarimala," BJP Kerala general secretary K. Surendran opened his inaugural address to enthusiastic applause. Icing on the cake, the procession commenced on L.K. Advani’s 91^st birthday, on November 8. The Sabarimala rath yatra will be a watershed moment for the party, said Kerala party president P.S. Sreedharan Pillai. Along with Pillai was Thushar Vellappally, the leader of Bharatiya Dharma Jana Sena, NDA constituent and the political outfit claiming to represent Ezhavas, a numerically strong backward caste community in the state. His participation was significant in more ways than one. A deeply divided demographic characterises Kerala, with the majority community only accounting for about 56 per cent of the population. According to a recent Centre for Developing Studies (CDS) breakdown of the census according to caste and religion, Ezhava Hindus and Sunni Muslims accounted for about 46 per cent of Kerala’s population, together likely to strike an absolute majority in the near future. Secondly, Vellappally would serve as an effective counterfoil against the CPI(M) invoking the names of tremendously influential social reformers like Sree Narayana Guru in their support of women entry into the temple. “Sree Narayana Guru spoke out against superstitions, and not against traditions and beliefs. And he is not just a religious reformer, he is god for us,” said Vellappally, speaking to THE WEEK.

Sathyaraj (Centre) and Akhil (second from left) are young BJP volunteers

“Is it all right to say on camera that as long as we are here, no woman will enter Sabarimala?” a youngster in his twenties mused, mistaking me for a broadcast reporter, before quickly moving away. A group of teens loitering near the inauguration venue, who identified themselves as students and labourers, seemed to agree. “Not even a single woman vishwasi (devotee) wants to enter Sabarimala,” said Akhil, a native of Madhur. “When was the last time the women, who are now trying to enter the temple, lit an evening lamp in their homes?” asked Satyaraj, another young BJP volunteer.

The yatra—which THE WEEK covered on the ground—was a golden chance for the BJP to lay fresh political moorings in a state that has consistently rejected muscular Hindutva, and it showed. Pillai warned the CPI(M) not to paint their rally in a communal colour. “We have taken the blessings of Hindu spiritual leaders, Islamic scholars and Christian priests. This is not just an issue that matters to Hindu/Ayyappa devotees. This is a dharmayuddha—a war between believers and non-believers,” he warned.

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As soon as the Supreme Court announced its verdict, protests broke out across the state, with mobs of devotees holding the hill shrine to ransom, insistent in their demand that no woman should enter the temple. The standoff soon morphed into violence and attacks against women journalists and devotees. Politically, the CPI(M) found itself on the back foot—constantly on the defensive against an overtly aggressive BJP, who accused them of not doing enough to bring the stakeholders (the head priest and the Travancore royal family) into discussions on implementation of the verdict. Right-wing social media handles flooded timelines with lists and memes of past Supreme Court orders that CPI(M) and Chief Minister Vijayan failed to implement. The Congress accused both the CPI(M) and the BJP of turning Sabarimala into a pawn in their political games. UDF constituent Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) announced its complete support to Ayyappa devotees. On some occasions, IUML activists, sporting party flags, joined the protesting devotees expressing their solidarity. The Jamaat council even announced they were expelling Rehana Fathima, an activist who made a stir when she attempted to enter the temple, from their mahallu, for ‘hurting the sentiments of lakhs of Hindu devotees’.

And then, the tables turned. A video of Pillai speaking at a closed-door event, where he called Sabarimala fiasco ‘a golden opportunity’, and how the fight was now directly between the BJP and the CPI(M), leaked, evoking widespread outrage. Then came a video of Kannur RSS leader Valsan Thillankeri climbing the pathinettam padi (the final 18 steps) without the traditional irumudikettu, earning a public rebuke from the chief temple priest.

Politically, the BJP hopes the Sabarimala issue will stir up passions, enough for them to make a sizeable electoral dent. A top leader of the party, speaking to THE WEEK, said that they expected massive gains in Travancore, central Travancore and pockets of northern Malabar like Kasargode. And, there are indications that the Sabarimala issue has touched a nerve. Janam TV, a right-leaning channel in a majorly left-liberal ecosystem, watched its ratings rise triple fold on the back of the Sabarimala issue. According to BARC data, the channel, from October 27 to November 2, had a total of 21,391 impressions, ranking it third behind Asianet News and Manorama News.

“We have noticed a certain degree of mobilisation on social media too,” says BJP IT cell coordinator Sooraj Perambra. “People, apart from the usual BJP activists, are tuning in to our Facebook Live feeds. If, in the past, around 1,000 people watched our videos at any given point of time, the number has now risen to 4,000 and 6,000,” he said. According to data provided by the IT Cell, from October 11 to November 7, their page views went up 182 per cent, page likes up to 178 per cent and post engagements rose 154 per cent.

Supplementing the online battle is the offline war, aided by the RSS boots on the ground. Sangh state chief Gopalan Kutty Master is quick to disavow any involvement with the ‘political’ rath yatra. RSS, he says, is busy organising nama japa yatras (chanting of Ayyappa mantras) across the state. According to their official figures, they are spread across at least 21 taluks in every district. “What we are witnessing now is a kind of Hindu revivalism, a unification that cuts across caste lines. We have Pinarayi Vijayan to thank for that. They will try to brand this as an upper caste or savarna uprising. But, the fact is our programmes have massive support from all sections like the Vishwakarma (classified as a backward caste) and the Kerala Pulayar Maha Sabha (KPMS), and even those who are not traditional RSS supporters,” he said.

CPI(M) leaders, however, say the party has no concerns. As opposed to the BJP’s high-octane political offensive, the party has opted for the quieter, but no less intense, counter-campaign—mobilising its cadres and youth organisations like the DYFI to counter BJP propaganda—on the ground and on social media. “This rhetoric won’t work in Kerala,” says CPI(M) MP M.B. Rajesh. “Here, believers and non-believers together worked for social reformation and the causes of the devotees. There has been a unity there. Moreover, the people of Kerala are divided on the Sabarimala verdict, and even BJP leaders like O. Rajagopal, who earlier supported the entry of women in the temple, have done a U-turn. We stand steadfast, and even if we suffer some losses in the short-term, history will prove us right,” he said.

Ultimately, it is a question of how long the Sabarimala issue will stay alive in the public minds, says political analyst and senior journalist Jacob George. “In a highly political state like Kerala, will the BJP be able to sustain this issue till the upcoming Lok Sabha and assembly polls? That is the question,” he said. Will the BJP gambit work? Even if the ‘All Devotees Matter’ strategy might not be enough to endear the party to minority voters, will the maths behind the ploy to rob the CPI(M) of those votes pay out electorally? In Travancore and Central Kerala constituencies like Kazhakkoottam, Nemom and Chengannur, the BJP had managed to increase its tally from lowly four figures in the 7000s range, in the 2011 assembly elections, to respectable second positions in the 2016 assembly polls. In Nemom, they even found their maiden victory. In those seats, it was the Congress that suffered a dip in the vote share, falling to a humiliating third position (though no means a statewide trend). “In the electoral front, the BJP has not been able to make a dent in Kerala. Their first mission will be to take on the role of the opposition party,” says George.

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Throughout the rally, the party touched on all expected topics—Macaulay; the savarna machinations of E.M.S. Namboothirippad, the first chief minister of Kerala; the CPI(M) destroying 15 mosques in the 1971 Thalassery riots; religion coming back stronger than ever after the communist Soviet Union broke up; the party’s alleged disrespect towards backward caste renaissance leaders like Sree Narayana Guru and Mahatma Ayyankali, and the police atrocities and state repression against the pilgrims in Sabarimala. What stood out even more was perhaps the muted rhetoric on some of the pet saffron issues. The 1983 Nilakkal protests at the Sabarimala base camp, which resulted in a direct confrontation between the Hindu and Christian communities, was one that lingered mostly in silence. The government’s alleged inaction when it comes to enforcing contentious Supreme Court orders relating to other religious communities—the favourite talking point for right-wing social media handles—was another.

Gopalan (seated, centre) believes that a course of action would be to open a new temple exclusively for women in Sabarimala

On November 9, the rath yatra was almost two hours late to its destination. Ramesh’s onstage demeanour was grim. “I would like to inform you all that when the rally entered Kannur district, a group pelted stones at Sreedharan Pillai, Thushar Vellappally, and the picture of Ayyappa. We would like to remind the communists that Kannur BJP knows very well how to retaliate to any act of violence,” he warned. A lungi-clad man in the front row sprang up in spirited applause. "[Chief Minister] Pinarayi Vijayan is now praising Kelappaji [Congress leader who spearheaded Guruvayur temple entry]," said BJP general secretary M.T. Ramesh. "He has to remember that the undivided communist party tried to kill him. They insulted Kelappaji throughout. The chief minister now speaks of Sree Narayana Guru. What was your attitude towards him then? The only person who did not call him Gurudevan was EMS. Didn't CPI(M) call Gurudevan 'Cement Nanu'?" Ramesh asked. As the makeshift chariot started approaching the stage, the compere urged the crowd to start chanting the saranam mantras. An elderly, well-dressed couple pleasantly apologised for stubbing my toes in the hubbub. “Come fast,” the woman urged the other. “We have to get a glimpse.” As the chants rose to a crescendo, an elderly man started swaying, hands folded and leaning on a wooden pillar. “The only way to resolve this issue is to build a temple for women in Sabarimala and keep the men away entirely,” was an unsolicited sagely advice from Gopalan, a 43-year-old BJP activist from Kasargode. “Temples are governed under certain sastras, and sudden changes are not possible. Could you ask the sun to rise in the west and set in the east?”

The day’s events had come to a close, and a visibly famished crowd dispersed for lunch. “We would like to thank the mujahid [Muslim sect] community,” the compere got the final word in, “for cancelling a previous booking and letting us have this stage.” Thunderous applause rent the air.