To understand leaders, we must know their ideology. In President Donald Trump’s case, experts say, we must understand his psychology. But it is above most people’s pay grade to fathom the psychology of an erratic, complex, boastful potentate, who has neither filters nor fetters in using his executive power to upend the world order, crush his opponents, unnerve his allies, ignore genocide, fill his family coffers, hike H-1B visa fee by ‘6,566 per cent’ overnight, browbeat media, comedians, liberals and universities. John Coates, neuroscientist and an expert on risk-taking, says “Trump is a psy ops warrior.”
Trump’s “psychological operations” have converted the geopolitical into a geopsychological universe. China’s foreign minister Wang Yi says he is a “bully toying with the world”. Trump has unleashed a whirlwind of global uncertainty with his slash-and-burn tariffs, sanctions, attacks, raids and invasion threats. Trump’s superpower comes from nuclear weapons and B-2 Bombers. But also from “weaponising” uncertainty. Says Coates, Trump “deploys uncertainty to soften up his opponents, make them risk-averse in advance of negotiating deals.”
The ability to keep opponents guessing is a powerful weapon, because uncertainty plays tricks on the human brain. Psychologists say uncertainty intensifies emotions, exaggerates dangers, damages health, impairs judgment and decisions. Studies show uncertainty leads to poorer decision-making, even accepting less favourable terms of agreements. All his life, Trump filed expensive lawsuits to scare opponents. Now he uses his executive power to force top law firms to do free work for him. He sends troops to terrorise migrants. Trump’s skill and stomach to wage psychological war is ceaseless, changeable, capricious, even cruel.
Imaging: Deni Lal
Unpredictable bosses get compliance because they are feared more. They manipulate uncertainty to get their way in politics, military, bureaucracy, sports. Research shows football referees who are unpredictable about when and how they punish foul play extract better behaviour from players. During World War II, the unpredictable movements of the German battleship Admiral Graf Spee kept even the hard-nosed Winston Churchill on tenterhooks. The battleship, designed to outgun and outrun British and French cruisers, moved stealthily in the south Atlantic, looming near a harbour, vanishing without a trace, only to reappear elsewhere. It did not attack, but it disrupted British maritime communications, trade and imports of raw material and food.
But weaponising uncertainty is a double-edged sword, warns Coates. Used against opponents, uncertainty can be useful. But used against allies, it can inflict self-harm. Undermining the Fed’s independence or keeping the private sector guessing damages US economy. Canada took Trump’s bullying, but then fought back. Besides, uncertainty’s effect wears off under prolonged use. Kill becomes overkill.
That’s because uncertainty triggers the “stress response”. Pioneering endocrinologist Hans Selye distinguished between positive, short-term stress—’eustress’—experienced in sports, creative work or meetings that enhance performance and concentration and negative, chronic stress—’distress’— experienced when enduring joblessness, death or humiliation. Negative stress causes illness and meltdowns. It alters behaviour with people dreading risk, offering concessions or becoming timid in job, pay or tariff negotiations.
The prospect of pulling off band-aid from an unhealed wound is more excruciating than the act. Anticipating a tooth extraction is often worse than the actual extraction. Research also shows humans can bear more pain when it is administered regularly than when it is administered unpredictably. Uncertainty, the ‘not-knowing’, transforms the mind into a minefield as the brain imagines exaggerated scenarios of pain and loss. Psy ops warrior Trump knows how to feel the pulse of the people. But he also knows how to scratch their raw nerve… and keep the world on edge.
Pratap is an author and journalist.