Monsoon likely to be below normal this year IMD

New Delhi, Apr 13 (PTI) The country is likely to receive below normal monsoon rains this year, the India Meteorological Department said on Monday.
     The expected emergence of El Nino conditions in June -- after a gap of three years -- could impact the southwest monsoon, the lifeline of India's farm-based economy.
     India is likely to receive 80 cm of rainfall during the season -- June to September. The long-period average (1971-2020) of the seasonal rainfall over India is 87 cm, the IMD said.
     Speaking at a press conference, M Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology of the IMD, said, "Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 92 per cent of long-period average (LPA) with a model error of +/- 5 per cent."
     Below normal seasonal rainfall is expected over most parts of the country, except in some areas over Northeast, Northwest and South Peninsular India -- where normal to above normal rainfall can take place.
     One of the reasons for below normal rainfall could be the emergence of the El Nino conditions.
     According to the IMD, climate models indicate that El Nino conditions are likely to emerge around June.
     El Nino is the warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean that impacts weather across the world. The last time El Nino conditions developed was in 2023. Since 2000, these conditions have emerged in 2002, 2009, and 2015.
     El Nino conditions are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.
     Currently, weak La Nina conditions are transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific.
     La Nina usually brings a temporary cooling effect on global average temperatures.
     Also, climate models show that during the second half of the monsoon season, positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions can develop.
     "Positive IOD leads to more rainfall. So, we expect that this will counter the impact of El Nino during the second half of the monsoon season," Dr Mohapatra said.
     He also highlighted that compared to last year, the northern hemisphere snow cover area during the last three months (January to March) was slightly below normal.
     The winter and spring snow extent over the Northern Hemisphere has an inverse relationship with the subsequent southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country.
     The IMD gives the first forecast for monsoon season rainfall around mid-April and an updated forecast in the last week of May.
     About 75 per cent of India's total rainfall comes during the monsoon season, making it essential for irrigation, drinking water and electricity generation through hydropower.
     Nearly 64 per cent of Indians depend on agriculture, which mainly relies on the southwest monsoon as only about 55 per cent of the net sown area is covered by irrigation.
     The primary rain-bearing system is crucial for replenishing reservoirs. 

(This story has not been edited by THE WEEK and is auto-generated from PTI)