As the BJP prepares to celebrate the Modi government's 12th anniversary in power at the Centre, it has genuine reasons to cheer on the political front.
The economic front, of course, is a different story: a worsening global energy crisis is sending oil prices shooting up, demanding policy deftness to give citizens respite and the country breathing space in a changing world order. But politically, the ruling party has shown that its Ashvamedha yagna continues unhindered, sounding a death knell for regional powerhouses.
For most of the 1990s and 2000s, Indian politics ran on regional satraps. Caste arithmetic, welfarism, and the personal authority of a state leader determined their rule.
The last twelve years have seen the pillars of regional dominance either collapse or crack. From Mulayam Singh Yadav to Mamata Banerjee and everyone in between, a host of regional leaders have witnessed their power erode.
Mulayam built the Samajwadi Party out of OBC consolidation. At his peak, Uttar Pradesh was unthinkable without him. Lalu Prasad did something similar in Bihar—a social revolution lifting backward castes into political power. The empires of socialist leaders have frayed, even as their heirs struggle to command the same authority as their fathers.
Naveen Patnaik governed Odisha for 24 years, and was waiting to mark his 25th unhindered year in power before the BJP swept him aside. The BJD, which had positioned itself above national politics, still has no answer to the Modi machine.
Mamata Banerjee too wilted under the aggressive charge from the saffron forces, while the Dravidian powerhouse M.K. Stalin was swept away in the 'Vijay' wave. Pinarayi Vijayan's Left in Kerala hit anti-incumbency after two strong terms, putting a question mark on the Left's future.
The Akali offer a different lesson. The Shiromani Akali Dal was the BJP's oldest ally and representative of Sikh aspirations. When it walked out over farm laws in 2020, it chose its base over its coalition. It lost both. Despite overtures, the BJP has shown no hurry to bring them back, instead building its own alternative in the border state.
KCR created Telangana through a decade-long movement. His party, rechristened as the BRS, dreamed of being a national alternative but was reduced to being a marginal player in the state it built. The beneficiary there was the Congress.
Arvind Kejriwal won Delhi twice on governance delivery. His AAP project came to the point of withering away after his arrest and a ballot-box verdict. It is yet to recover as it faces more challenges with six of its Rajya Sabha MPs defected.
Once the undisputed leader of the Dalits, Mayawati is a pale shadow of her former self. In Kashmir, the Abdullahs hold on to the region with limited power. Shiv Sena and NCP have been split, and the dominant factions are with the BJP. TDP under Chandrababu Naidu managed to return to power after aligning with the BJP.
If one counted the numbers, the Congress is in power in four states, while the NDA is in 22, which points towards a bipolar polity, thus putting a question mark over the regional parties' ability to regain their old glory.
One thing that most agree on is that the old idiom alone may not work. The new voter is much more wired, aspirational, and unforgiving. Regional parties need a disciplined cadre, and leaders who are seen often and regularly, not just before the polls.
The pattern is clear in that the national narrative dominates, unless regional parties can offer a better story and come up with a strategy to counter the BJP's aggressive play.
The electorate may be willing to give a chance, but it wants a government and a leader who is present and ensures governance, transparency, and an economic vision.
For the BJP, its central leadership often plays the part, taking away the focus from their state leaders who may face anti-incumbency. The AAP in Punjab and Vijay in Tamil Nadu offered a respite from mainstream parties that led to voters wholeheartedly supporting them.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah have ensured that they are one step ahead of their opponents in strategy and communication.
The election machinery under them has shown that it is able to adjust and learn from past mistakes and adopt newer slogans. Their 12th anniversary in power points to a political landscape where regional satraps are no longer the powerhouses, unless they reinvent.