Dibrugarh, Guwahati, Barpeta, Nagaon, Tinsukia
As the sun rises over Upper Assam, women fan out across the Mohanbari tea garden, spread over more than 100 hectares in Dibrugarh district. Reena Karmokar’s hands move rapidly, cutting old leaves at an angle to prevent rainwater from damaging the plant. She has been doing this for 25 years.
Once the fields are pruned, fresh leaves sprout with the onset of the new plucking season in early March. It is also election season in Assam. With the polls scheduled for April 9, the campaign is gathering momentum, bringing narrative wars, development comparisons, communal undercurrents and long-pending demands of tea garden workers into sharp focus.
Assam today has wider roads, more flyovers and visible welfare schemes. Most people in the capital, Guwahati, believe Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma will return with a staggering majority. Sarma, meanwhile, is moving methodically to checkmate the opposition. One strategy is singling out Bengali-speaking Muslims, known as miya Muslims—a time-tested strategy to consolidate the Hindu electorate. “Sarma is focusing on polarising the electorate along religious lines,” says political commentator Sushanta Talukdar. “He uses the miya term often to project them as outsiders. He may be thinking that development alone cannot win the election.”
Among the two dozen women working in the tea garden, most had voted for the BJP last time and many remain inclined to do so this time as well. But Karmokar, a BJP voter for 10 years, says people like her are suffering because of low wages. “Can anyone today fulfil basic needs on Rs250 a day?” she asks. “We have to pay school fees for our children, eat and save for the future. We have been demanding at least Rs350 a day.” Women like her are thinking about voting against the BJP if their demands—scheduled tribe recognition, legal land ownership rights and higher wages—remain unmet.
Unlike Lower Assam, where politics has increasingly become linked to religion, Upper Assam houses a layered mix of castes, ethnicities and a Muslim population of less than 8 per cent spread unevenly. It is also the epicentre of the long-standing demand for scheduled tribe status by six communities: Tai Ahom, Moran, Matak, Chutia, tea tribes and Koch-Rajbongshi. Of the 126 assembly seats, 45 are in Upper Assam and the NDA had swept the region in 2021: the BJP alone won 38—close to 60 per cent of the 64 seats it eventually won in the state.
Political analyst Madan Mohan Jha believes the numbers could be different this time. “If the Congress and allies fight a well-coordinated battle, they can challenge the BJP,” he says.
Despite Assam having a Muslim population of about 35 per cent, the community’s influence is limited by demographic concentration and fragmented voting patterns. Before the 2023 delimitation, Muslims dominated around 30 seats and held decisive influence in another 10. Now Muslim domination is limited to just over 20 seats. Sarma’s polarising approach could subtly project Congress as a Muslim party. Bijoy Gogoi of Dibrugarh University feels the move could help the BJP in Hindu belts where there is anti-incumbency.
The BJP has an advantage at the grassroots level, too. BJP leaders with organisational roles are clear about their targets and responsibilities. Congress leaders seem focused on broader national narratives, like allegations of “vote chori”, leaving the BJP ahead in data gathering and strategy implementation.
The BJP claims a cadre presence in more than 24,000 of 29,656 booths across Assam, with at least 15 active members in each. Though it lacks cadre strength in Muslim-majority areas, there is hope that the government’s performance will be seen favourably. “We are also focusing on building cadre in those areas,” says BJP state general secretary Pallav Lochan.
In contrast, a majority of Congress booth units are under-equipped and operationally weak. Sarma had taken many experienced Congress leaders with him to the BJP. As Debashish Chandra, a resident of Nagaon district, puts it: “BJP flags and workers are everywhere, but Congress presence is hardly noticeable.”
Congress leaders privately admit that the election hinges on broad-based alliances. Raijor Dal chief Akhil Gogoi told THE WEEK that a united opposition could have produced a visible churn on the ground. “Usually, a big party initiates negotiations with smaller parties,” he says. “But, in Assam, smaller parties are trying to initiate unity. But Congress leaders are a little reluctant. I am hearing that Congress is not targeting 2026, but 2031.” The RD apparently pulled out of the alliance after the Congress refused to cede Dhing constituency, held by the All India United Democratic Front.
The BJP-led alliance looks more sorted and agenda-driven, but Congress state president Gaurav Gogoi says the BJP is facing internal battles. “There are competing camps—Sarma’s and Sarbananda Sonowal’s—with many seats where both have aspirants, and besides those from the [ally] Asom Gana Parishad,” he says. The BJP, he says, will have trouble holding together the Bodo People’s Front and the United People’s Party Liberal in the Bodoland Territorial Region. “We [are] far ahead in alliance preparation,” he says. “I want to make every decision deliberately.”
According to Lurinjyoti Gogoi, president of the Assam Jatiya Parishad, the Congress should show some urgency. “It is easy to ally with parties, but vote transfer is a major issue,” he says. “So, they should finalise the alliance immediately and bring clarity on seats so that we can move together.”
Within the Congress, Gogoi is perceived by some as not easily accessible when compared with Debabrata Saikia, an established leader with strong roots in Assam politics. Insiders say Saikia, the leader of the opposition in the assembly, has the backing of more than a dozen MLAs and is wary of Gogoi’s growing influence.
Also, AICC general secretary and Assam in-charge Bhawar Jitendra Singh and Gogoi are yet to find the right balance to work together.
The influence of former Congress ally AIUDF over a section of Muslims complicates things further. Says AIUDF’s Dubhri MLA Nazrul Hoque: “We want all the anti-BJP parties to come together, but the Congress does not seem interested as they think the Hindu votes in Upper Assam will be affected.”
Notably, many Muslims, across districts, say they are unlikely to vote for the AIUDF, whose influence appears to be declining after failing to effectively represent Muslim interests. This could be to the benefit of the Congress.
There is broad agreement that Assam has witnessed rapid development. However, former law enforcement officer and political commentator Ezaz Hazarika notes that much of this has been concentrated around Guwahati. “What could keep the electorate firmly connected with the BJP, beyond visible infrastructure, are the welfare schemes,” he says.
The Orunodoi scheme provides a monthly direct benefit transfer of Rs1,250 to more than 38 lakh women—one of the largest such initiatives in the state’s history. Those who submit LPG connection documents receive an additional Rs250 for cooking fuel. The Mukhya Mantri Mahila Udyamita Abhiyan (Lakhpati Baideo initiative) provides seed capital of Rs10,000 to women in self-help groups to start microenterprises, with additional support contingent on progress. Nijut Moina Asoni supports girls from the higher secondary to the university level with monthly financial assistance.
A sitting legislator admits that these would have been of no help had the elections been held closer to Zubeen Garg’s death. Hindus and Muslims, Bengalis and Assamese, the young and the old, all speak of him as the “cultural heartbeat of Assam”. Shyamkanu Mahanta, the organiser of the North East India Festival where Garg was scheduled to perform, was charged with criminal conspiracy. Mahanta was widely perceived as being close to Sarma and there are claims that the chief minister initially sought to protect him before turning against him. This fuelled public outrage towards Sarma, which subsided after he constituted a special investigation team and publicly stated Garg had been murdered.
Nasir Rehman, Garg’s neighbour on Zoo Road, where the singer had his studio, believes the anger is fading. “There is still an undercurrent; he remains an issue, but not for long,” he says.
The BJP enters the contest with power, precision and a formidable ground presence. The Congress leans on legacy and a promise of secular balance, but carries a visible uncertainty.