NITISH KUMAR’S FIRST tenure as chief minister in 2000 was short-lived. He held the office for only seven days before Rashtriya Janata Dal president Lalu Prasad outmanoeuvred the National Democratic Alliance with the support of the Congress. Five years later, the elections again resulted in a fractured mandate. As a government could not be formed, fresh elections were held nine months later. The NDA got a clear majority with the Janata Dal (United) emerging as the largest party. Yet, there was no clarity on who the chief minister would be—Nitish’s colleagues like George Fernandes and Digvijay Singh were against him. It was the then BJP state president Sushil Kumar Modi who came to his rescue.
“The media was speculating on different names though he was the natural candidate as he had been CM in 2000,” Modi told THE WEEK. “But, no one was willing to take a call. I realised it would lead to the same uncertain situation of a few months ago. So, I unilaterally announced his name. His name was such that no one could oppose it.” On recent developments, Modi said that Nitish had now “betrayed the mandate three times”.
This sense of betrayal runs deep in Bihar politics. Betrayals during realignments are called out, but astuteness shown in staying in power is rewarded. The late Ram Vilas Paswan is often credited with picking the winning side every time. This earned him the sobriquet mausam vigyanik (weatherman). In 2013, Nitish and the BJP parted ways after accusing each other of violating trust. But, in 2017, when Nitish severed ties with the RJD and Lalu accused him of betrayal, the BJP offered support. Now, as the BJP accuses him of betrayal, the RJD is back on Nitish’s side.
Nitish, too, has a list of people who betrayed him. “I gave [R.C.P. Singh] my position (party president); I told him to resign only when reports started coming out against him,” he said. “I asked the BJP for four cabinet posts, but they only gave one.” If Nitish was miffed with the BJP for undermining him, he was unhappy with the RJD in 2017 for being overbearing. A source said that he had then gone to meet Rahul Gandhi to ask him to rein in Lalu or tell him to respond to charges of corruption. But, Rahul refused to intervene and Nitish resigned a few days later.
Nitish’s return to the opposition camp has reignited hopes of unity. And he seems excited by the role he can play. During his first public function after taking oath as chief minister for a record eighth time, he spoke about his role in opposition unity in response to a question posed by THE WEEK. “I will try to bring all opposition parties together,” he said. “I want to connect everyone. We are doing a positive job. I am getting many phone calls, I am speaking to everyone. We will do it, before that, let us get the things in order here.” His quote immediately hit the headlines.
Could he be the elusive opposition leader from the Hindi heartland who could be the prime ministerial candidate. “There is no such thing in my mind,” he said during the same interaction. JD(U) leader Upendra Kushwaha told THE WEEK: “We are not commenting on this (Nitish being a prime ministerial candidate) at the moment.”
On Nitish’s latest switch sparking hopes of opposition unity, BJP’s Bihar president Sanjay Jaiswal said that he had doubts whether the opposition parties would trust Nitish. “He wanted to be vice president and is so unpredictable with his frequent U-turns,” Jaiswal told THE WEEK, from his party office, where the number of visitors has dwindled sharply since the party lost power. “The Congress position is different because its leadership, like Tejashwi Yadav, is accused in ED cases and would have to go to jail someday,” he added. “Even Sonia Gandhi would like to know how Nitish will save Tejashwi, which will help them in the future.”
Jaiswal was at the forefront of what the JD(U) called the BJP’s “attack” against its own coalition’s government. The JD(U) saw this as a ploy to weaken it. But, Jaiswal said that Nitish ignored the fact that illegal liquor was being sold. “Not a single day passes when crime does not happen,” he said. “He (Nitish) was offended that we were raising these issues. But, the government was failing on the issue of law and order.”
The sudden change has left the leaders, the cadre and even the people on the ground uncertain about how the situation will pan out. Perhaps as a result of this uncertainty, the pulsating energy which is seen when a new government is formed was missing in Bihar; it is more of cautious optimism. Nitish’s famous statement during his days of struggle is often cited: “I will come to power by hook or by crook, and then, I will do good work.”
Meanwhile, in the BJP camp, there is clear gloom at being outwitted by a regional satrap. Will there be more investigations by the ED and the CBI? “Already action is being taken against Lalu Prasad and Sonia Gandhi,” said Congress Bihar chief Madan Mohan Jha. “The government is targeting them. The Centre is vindictive. But, we will continue to do our work.”
A number of politicians, both senior and mid-level, that THE WEEK spoke to appeared unsure of what was in store politically, despite their public posturing. On Patna’s Beerchand Patel Road, which houses most of the party offices, at a short distance from the BJP’s office, RJD state president Jagdanand Singh held fort. While the BJP has modernised its party offices across the country, offices of other parties like the RJD appear to be stuck in the past. Singh termed the return of the JD(U)-RJD alliance a return to the old values of socialism. “The message is clear,” he said. “This alliance stands against those trying to spread a communal message while sweeping issues of jobs and livelihood under the carpet.” As Nitish, 71, gets another run, he has governance issues to tackle and creating jobs is a primary concern.
Tejashwi, the deputy chief minister, is the rising star of Bihar politics. He has charisma and has inherited his father’s legacy. But, he is also not shy of trying a different approach. During the 2020 elections, Tejashwi rarely mentioned his father. This was done to avoid negative sentiments associated with a convicted leader. The 32-year-old even apologised for mistakes made during the previous RJD rule, saying he was only three years old then. It is hoped that the chief ministership will pass to Tejashwi in 2025. The fact that there is no clear line of succession in the JD(U) improves his chances. “No one can make a prediction about such a distant thing,” said Jha. “Let us see how things work out.”
In any case, there appears to be a move to protect Tejashwi from political attacks before he is ready for the top post. The RJD-led alliance had more seats than the JD(U)’s 45 in the 243-member assembly. Yet, they chose to give Nitish the top post as he has acceptance across the state. In the new 31-member cabinet, while the RJD got 50 per cent of the seats, the JD(U) kept home and finance—the two portfolios which had led to criticism of the RJD in the past. This means that the BJP can no longer target Tejashwi with charges of “jungle raj” or corruption. The deputy chief minister was also given Z-plus security.
Tejashwi, articulate in the rustic idiom and in English, has caught the attention of the youth. They look at him with hopes of getting jobs. His promise of providing 10 lakh jobs has been questioned. But, Nitish came to his rescue by announcing that the government would not only provide 10 lakh public sector jobs, but would also create another 10 lakh jobs in the private sector. The BJP knows this crucial issue will help it to target the government, if it fails to fulfil the promise. “This is good for us,” said Jaiswal. “Voters have been enticed by the promise. Now, Tejashwi will get exposed.”
For the BJP, the fall of Patna is crucial. It will rely on issues of bad governance, terror cases and the rise in deaths because of spurious liquor to target the grand alliance. For the JD(U) and the RJD, social engineering—evident in the choice of ministers—may help in the assembly elections. But, similar experiments, have not yielded the desired results, in the recent past (Uttar Pradesh, 2019).
However, the opposition camp says Bihar will set an example, like it did during the Emergency. The state is often called the cradle of democracy because it gave the country the earliest form of republic through the 16 mahajanapadas which functioned during the fifth and sixth centuries BCE. Can it become a turning point in the country’s current political path? Everyone will be watching.