The harvest this year yielded a record production of wheat, resulting in a record procurement by government agencies. The full granaries provide a sense of security to the country during the Covid-19 crisis. Yet, farmers continue to be on the warpath.
For over six months, farmers mostly from Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh have been camping at Delhi’s borders—defying vagaries of weather, and in denial of Covid-19—demanding the repeal of the three contentious farm laws passed in Parliament in September 2020. Their numbers may have dwindled at the capital’s borders, but their resolve has not.
The agitation, with its scale and strength, has already belied claims that it would fizzle out soon. “There are two options before us. Either to return victorious with the repeal of the laws or sit here till they are,” said farmer union leader B.S. Rajewal. “Our resolve has shown that after our delegations went to West Bengal, the political wave changed from pro-Modi to against him. If the prime minister does not listen to our demands, we will go to Uttar Pradesh too.”
Despite calls from various quarters to curtail the agitation in light of the second Covid wave and to get vaccinated, the farmers have largely ignored such suggestions. “We have done enough to keep our people safe with medicines and immunity building,” said Rajewal.
Most of the agitators still remain dismissive of the threat of Covid and the efficacy of vaccines. “Even the Central government agrees that there could be three fatalities in every 1,000 who are vaccinated,” said farmer union leader Jagjit Singh Dallewal. “There is no safeguard. If someone wants to have vaccination on his own, the organisations will not stop them. After the harvest, farmers will return to the movement.”
The Centre has been indifferent to their demand for repeal and to the latest prayer from farmers to resume talks, resulting in the farmers adopting an agitationist stance ahead of state polls in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh in February-March 2022. The continued protests in Haryana and Punjab have kept the issue alive across these agrarian states, making it difficult for political parties to look away.
While all non-BJP political parties across Punjab claim to be beneficiaries of this sentiment against the Central laws, there is also anxiety about the agitation dragging on. As most of the 32 farmer unions protesting at Delhi’s borders have largely stayed away from electoral politics, parties are worried that if they are forced to take a political call, the union leaders could rally behind a rival party or form a new front.
As the situation appears in the state, it is likely to be a four-way contest between the Congress, Akali Dal, BJP and AAP. Some of the newly set-up parties may align with these players to try their luck. Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh’s Congress will seek a mandate based on its governance record and its proactive handling of Covid, while the Akali Dal and the BJP might find the going tough after their separation.
The BJP fancies its chances in the Hindu-dominated areas and is actively wooing the 32 per cent dalit population, the highest among all states, with the promise of a dalit CM. The Akali Dal, too, is talking about a dalit deputy CM.
The AAP, which emerged as the main opposition party after the 2017 elections, will try to field a Punjabi chief ministerial face to get an extra edge. The party feels that its big promise to give MSP for all crops could be a gamechanger.
“No one can claim to be a beneficiary of the farmers’ agitation,” said Tript Singh Bajwa, Punjab cabinet minister for rural development. “It is too early to say what will happen. The Modi government has to make a move on the agitation. Moreover, it will depend on how farmer unions act during the polls.”
Bajwa’s party, the Congress, which was considered to be in pole position a few months ago, appears to be in disarray over infighting. Cricketer-turned-politician Navjot Singh Sidhu has raised a banner of revolt over the clean chit given to former chief minister Parkash Singh Badal by a state-appointed special investigation team in a case over the desecration of the Guru Granth Sahib, and the subsequent killing of protesters in police firing in 2015. Amarinder had promised to bring the guilty to book, including the Badals. However, in April, the Punjab and Haryana High Court set aside the report into the incident and called for a fresh probe. Rebellion grew against Amarinder as Sidhu alleged that the CM favoured the Badal family in the case. Since then, more Congress leaders, including ministers, have joined the rebellion. Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra had to step in to request warring factions not to escalate matters.
Driving forward: Rahul Gandhi, Punjab Congress president Sunil Jakhar and Chief Minister Amarinder Singh at a farmer protest rally. The Congress hopes to win the upcoming elections on its governance record | AFP
This negative publicity against the Punjab CM and Congress has worked in favour of the AAP. “The Congress was our main challenger till a while ago, but now they are facing in-house problems,” said Harjot Singh Bains, former AAP state chief and national executive member. “Now, they are not a challenge. The Akali Dal has resources to bring people to rallies, but anger has only increased against them even after four years.” To tide over the last elections’ missing element, Bains says even AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal has promised a local face as CM candidate.
Coming to the farmers’ issue, the AAP leader said it is not just limited to politics, but had cultural and emotional touches. “We have been focussing on agriculture even during the last elections,” said Bains. “If you want to bring Punjab back on track, the focus has to be on agriculture. We are the only party that has been saying that we will give MSP for all the crops on our own. We will follow the Delhi model.”
Bains claims in the last election there was a big wave in favour of the AAP. “The wave was more visible on the ground than this time. Last time, people were more vocal. This time, as I gather, they may not be vocal but are committed to our cause,” said Bains.
The key player in Punjab politics, the Akalis, are trying to woo back not only their traditional support base—the Jat Sikhs—but also rebels like Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa, who has floated his own party.
Though it left the NDA and separated from the BJP, on the issue of the three farmer laws, it has a tough challenge ahead of it.
“The Congress is our main challenger. The AAP and BJP are not in the picture. Farmers from all parties participated in the movement. When the elections come, they will move to their respective ideological camps. No one will stand with the BJP,” said Akali Dal vice president Daljeet Singh Cheema.
The party’s main defence is that it left its oldest ally, the BJP, after the farm laws were passed, and its main offensive is that the Congress government had supported such amendments as it had amended the APMC Act.
As the elections draw near, the Congress, AAP and Akali Dal will present themselves as sole representatives of the farmers’ cause. The BJP will be fighting with its back against the wall. The party, which always played a younger brother to Akali Dal in Punjab elections, is sticking to its line of Modi delivering goodies for farmers.
“The farm laws were not a sudden decision. It was a well-planned move,” said BJP general secretary Tarun Chugh. “PM Modi had promised to double farmers’ income. His government had increased the farmers’ 2013 budget by [multiple] times. Modi took a stance to continue farmer subsidies despite demands by the WTO.”
While the other three parties are eyeing the same farmers’ vote-bank, predominantly Sikhs, the BJP would look to other dominant groups like the Hindus and dalits. In Haryana, while the Congress and INLD focussed on the dominant Jat votes, the BJP wooed the Punjabi community, which voted it to power in 2014. The party is hoping a similar experiment would work in Punjab.
“All other parties are working under the banner of farmers, while the BJP is the only one fighting under its own party flag,” said Dushyant Gautam, BJP in-charge for Punjab. “The farm laws are for the entire country, but only a section of farmers from Punjab are agitating. This is a planned agitation [by parties], and they will be exposed by the time elections come.”
The farmer union leaders are wary. “All parties know now that it is a problem for the BJP and it is better to let them deal with it,” said Dallewal. “Because whoever comes to power, that party has to bring such laws under the pressure of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. All parties are shedding crocodile tears, but they all want these laws to be implemented.”
The country already has two recent models before it. The AAP was borne out of the anti-corruption movement as it decided to cash in on the sentiment and went on to reap the political harvest. On the other hand, two political parties were set up in Assam to cash in on the anti-CAA sentiment. They ended up dividing the opposition votes against the BJP, and sunk without a significant show. The question is can the farmers’ movement throw up a new political formation or influence electoral outcomes in both Punjab and Uttar Pradesh? The next few months will be crucial as the Centre might be forced to deal with the issue.