Even as millions of refugees in West Bengal await the speedy implementation of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), the Narendra Modi government appears to be in no hurry, possibly keeping in mind the implications the move will have on neighbouring Assam. Assembly polls are due in both states, and opposition to the Act is growing in Assam, especially against the provision of legalising encroachments by refugees.
Lakhs of Bengali refugees, mostly from the Matua community, have sought an urgent meeting with Union Home Minister Amit Shah, demanding the speedy implementation of the CAA, which was passed by Parliament two years ago. “My supporters would decide the future course of action if the CAA is not implemented immediately,” said Shantanu Thakur, a BJP MP who belongs to the community. Shah sent his crisis manager, Mukul Roy, to Thakur’s house in North 24 Parganas to mollify the angry leader.
In Assam on the other hand, Shah is being forced to deal with the growing demand to scrap the Act. The powerful All Assam Students’ Union (AASU) has launched a new political party, the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), which plans to contest the assembly elections against the alliance of the BJP and AGP (Asom Gana Parishad). The AGP was formed 35 years ago by AASU leaders, following the historic Assam Accord. It has given Assam several prominent leaders including its youngest chief minister, Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, and Sarbananda Sonowal, the incumbent chief minister who is now with the BJP.
But Sonowal might find the going tough with opposition parties considering a mahagathbandhan (grand alliance). The Congress, the left parties and the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) have already joined hands. Political observers are watching whether they can rope in the AJP and the Gana Mukti Sangram of Asom (GMSA)—the party headed by peasant leader and activist Akhil Gogoi, who enjoys the support of the Bengali-speaking community in lower Assam. The Congress and the AIUDF are also talking to the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), which used to be a member of the National Democratic Alliance.
The BJP, however, remains confident of its prospects as the state government remains popular. Sonowal is perceived as pro-development, thanks to a series of infrastructure projects launched with generous Central support. The Sonowal government has completed four major flyover projects, including one across the Brahmaputra. Several smaller projects, too, have been completed successfully.
Sonowal has also initiated peace talks with militant organisations, but he is seen as a person who keeps the interests of the state paramount, capable of resisting unnecessary interference from Delhi. While the negotiations have not been completely successful, Sonowal has managed to keep Assam relatively peaceful.
The Sonowal government has successfully implemented several direct cash transfer schemes. Apart from various Central government schemes, it has launched the Arunodoi scheme through which nearly 40 lakh people receive around Rs10,000 a year towards nutritional and medicinal support. During the Covid-19 lockdown, the poor in the state were given Rs2,000. For the young, Sonowal has drawn up the Swami Vivekananda Assam Youth Empowerment Movement (SVAYEM), a direct cash transfer scheme to start a service or manufacturing business.
“People are receiving the benefits at the ground level. The projects are not just on paper, which was the case when the Congress was in power,” said Akram Hossain, a civil rights activist. “I think this government is far ahead in serving the poor and the needy. Its biggest achievement is the proper utilisation of Central government funds. Its leaders have not stolen money from the poor.”
Assam BJP general secretary Rajdeep Roy, who represents Silchar in the Lok Sabha, said there was a pro-incumbency wave in the state and that the BJP would win more than 100 seats in the 126-member assembly. “Our government has never discriminated on the basis of caste, creed, religion and ethnicity. Be it women, students, youth, migrant labourers or the middle class, everyone has benefited,” said Roy. “At least 80 lakh people have benefited from the pro-poor and pro-middle class drive of the state government.”
Seeking approval: Gaurav Gogoi, son of former chief minister Tarun Gogoi, represents the new generation of Congress leadership in Assam | PTI
The opposition Congress, however, called the BJP’s claims bogus and said there was rampant misuse of funds. “Apart from the CAA and the National Register of Citizens of Assam (NRC), we have a range of issues such as the lack of development and unemployment,” said Debabrata Saikia, leader of the opposition in the assembly.
State Congress president Ripun Bora said the BJP was trying to keep the NRC issue alive for electoral gains. “Had the NRC been completed, they would not have had any other issue. So they are keeping it alive,” said Bora, referring to the Sonowal government’s decision to not implement the NRC.
But he conceded that the upcoming election was going to be the most challenging one in the history of the Congress. Bora said his party was forced to form an alliance with the AIUDF because the BJP was polarising Assam. “The NRC and the CAA are related to polarisation. We will go to the people and tell them that although they had participated in the NRC exercise [suffering much hardship], it bore no fruit,” said Bora.
Roy, however, said the BJP did not want to keep the issue alive unnecessarily. “We have told the Supreme Court that there should be 20 per cent revision of the NRC in the border areas and 10 per cent revision in the central areas. The matter is before the Supreme Court. Let it take a final call. There is no need to politicise the NRC.”
For the Congress, the major challenge is to find a mass leader to match Sonowal, who is extremely popular. His charisma is backed up by the organisational support provided by his second-in-command, Himanta Biswa Sarma, who used to be a close confidant of former Congress chief minister Tarun Gogoi. The Congress and the AIUDF are increasingly worried about Sarma’s political skills.
The Congress is facing an intense factional feud after Gogoi’s death in November from Covid-19 complications, with three leaders vying for the top post. Gogoi’s son, Gaurav, and former chief minister Hiteswar Saikia’s son, Debabrata, represent the new generation of Congress leadership in the state, while the old guard is represented by Bora. Another likely chief ministerial candidate is Lok Sabha MP Pradyut Bordoloi, who was a trusted lieutenant of Tarun Gogoi.
Bora said Gogoi’s absence was unlikely to cause much trouble. He said, “There is a vacuum. But people knew that Tarun Gogoi was sick and ageing and that he would not be a face in the future. We have enough faces to put up in the election.”
None of the leaders revealed much about the leadership tussle. Another possible reason for their reluctance is the fledgling alliance with the AIUDF. Its leader Badruddin Ajmal, too, has an eye on the top post. Ajmal, who represents Dhubri in the Lok Sabha, is extremely popular in the Muslim-majority areas of lower Assam and in the Bengali-dominated Barak valley, which, too, has a significant Muslim presence. He has been described by the Amman-based Royal Islamic Strategic Studies Centre as one of the 500 most influential Muslims in the world.
Ajmal runs a number of NGOs which provide financial support for educating the youth. But some of the NGOs are now under investigation by Central agencies. According to a report by the Union home ministry, they received money from some organisations which also funded insurgent activities. The BJP wants the National Investigation Agency to probe Ajmal’s NGOs. The Congress, however, said the investigation was political vendetta. “Ajmal being a businessman, there would have been some [acts of] omission and commission,” said Bora. “But the BJP should not politicise that and should deal with him like it does with other businessmen.”
Saikia said a section of the Congress workers was opposed to the alliance, but the high command insisted on opposition unity to defeat the BJP. “Our workers had a point. In many constituencies, both the Congress and the AIUDF are strong. But we decided in favour of an alliance for the sake of opposition unity.” The Congress is also worried that in the absence of an alliance, the AIUDF might try to polarise Muslim voters. “Any attempt on the part of the AIUDF to polarise the voters would be resisted,” said Bora. “Assam is a secular society and there is no room for such politics.”