ON MAY 11, while speaking at Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s videoconference, Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray asked the Centre to take a cautious approach while lifting the nationwide lockdown. With the number of Covid-19 cases nearing 25,000 and deaths crossing 800, Maharashtra continues to be the worst-hit state in the country and Uddhav does not want to take any chances.
Over 60 per cent of the cases are in Mumbai, followed closely by Pune and Thane. Dr Pradip Awate, state disease surveillance officer, said the very nature of the Mumbai-Pune-Thane triangle, had made it vulnerable. "Mumbai, the country’s economic capital, witnesses a high volume of interstate and international movement. It has a population density of 20,000 people per square kilometre, with a huge proportion of them living in slums. So the high numbers are not surprising.”
Critics say there are frequent flip-flops in testing protocols and in procedures for reporting deaths. Mumbai now tests only symptomatic patients and high-risk cases, saying it helps in better utilisation of manpower and resources. “The BMC (Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation) has chosen its own testing criteria, turning down the protocol laid down by the Indian Council of Medical Research. This will not only show a false decrease in the number of cases, but also spread the infection rapidly,” said health care activist Dr Amol Annadate. “The BMC is not recording Covid-19 deaths which are related to comorbidities like renal diseases, diabetes, cancer and heart disease. This will lead to an 85 per cent decrease in the number of deaths as maximum deaths are from comorbid conditions.”
The Maharashtra government is already under pressure with the Union government reprimanding it for the rising number of active cases inside the containment zones in Mumbai and for not following its directives about contact tracing and door-to-door surveillance. On his first day in office, Iqbal Singh Chahal, who on May 8 replaced Praveen Pardeshi as BMC commissioner, emphasised the importance of ramping up testing. Some officials and public health experts believe that the rising number of cases is the result of increased testing. “As testing is increased, with follow-up contact tracing, more cases are being reported, and we may be getting a truer picture of the actual disease burden," said Anant Bhan, researcher on global health. Dr Om Shrivastav, infectious diseases expert and a member of Maharashtra’s Covid-19 task force, said the numbers would stay high for a while before it starts getting better. "It is a new virus and it is tricky to know how it will behave. We should not be focusing on numbers,” said Shrivastav.
Another problem that hurts Maharashtra’s fight against the pandemic is the acute shortage of health care professionals. Resident doctors and even MBBS students are being pushed to the frontlines. "I am only a second-year student and I have been assigned to treat Covid-19 patients. I sometimes do not know what to do," said a junior resident.
The mounting troubles, however, have not affected Uddhav’s popularity. He has made it clear that it is not the time to play politics, even while proving himself to be a savvy political operator. When his chief ministership was under threat after his election to the legislative council ran into trouble, Uddhav did not hesitate to call up Modi for help. The gamble worked and the chief minister is all set to enter the upper chamber on May 21. Uddhav shunted out BMC commissioner Pardeshi after the Union health ministry reportedly expressed dissatisfaction over his handling of the pandemic. He demanded strict action against senior IPS officer Amitabh Gupta for allowing controversial businessmen Kapil and Dheeraj Wadhawan, who are facing probe in the Yes Bank scam, to travel despite lockdown restrictions. Gupta was sent on compulsory leave and an inquiry was ordered against him. In both cases, Uddhav was keen to send across a strong message to the bureaucracy.
A senior Congress legislator said Uddhav’s popularity remained unaffected because the vocal middle class was not affected much by the pandemic. “Most cases are coming from slums and low income colonies. The middle class, which lives in apartment complexes, is by and large unaffected.” But he has not completely forgotten the poor. When Covid-19 began spreading rapidly, he brought down the rates of the popular Shiv Bhojan meal from Rs10 to Rs5. “Uddhav’s entire messaging is focused on conveying facts to people and urging them to follow the measures initiated by the government. Teamwork among three alliance partners—the Shiv Sena, the NCP and the Congress—has also improved,” said the Congress legislator.
The BJP, however, is not impressed. Madhav Bhandari, chief spokesperson for the party, said the people were frustrated. “The government announced the other day that it was starting transport service to send people to their home districts,” he said. “But the decision was reversed overnight. People were not informed and they flocked to bus stands in large numbers.” Bhandari said such flip-flops angered people and the BJP was not protesting only because it was a responsible opposition.
Senior political analyst Prakash Akolkar said Uddhav’s image as a moderate, mild mannered person had helped him so far. “People think of him as an elder brother in the family. But it will not help him for long,” said Akolkar. “Uddhav’s speeches have started sounding empty. He needs to keep bureaucrats under control and show them who is the boss.”