K.P. Fabian
Yes, NATO is under threat. But it is not going to be extinct even if Donald Trump takes over Greenland through military means. NATO will remain, though significantly diminished, as the Europeans have no option but to put up with Trump’s high-handedness, illustrating once again what Thucydides wrote in the 5th century BCE: The strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must. Both Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and French President Emmanuel Macron quoted Thucydides without mentioning him by name.
To understand the rather complex issue confronting Europe, it is good to clarify Trump’s obsession with Greenland and raise a few questions. The general impression in the media—Indian as well as western—that Trump’s motivation stems from the real estate tycoon in him is only partially correct.
Since 1867, when the US purchased Alaska (1.5 million sqkm) from Tsarist Russia for $7.2 million, inter-departmental discussions have taken place in Washington about the desirability of acquiring Greenland. In 1916-17, when Washington purchased the Virgin Islands from Denmark for $25 million, secretary of state Robert Lansing made a declaration recognising the sovereignty of Denmark over Greenland. During World War II, when Denmark fell to Hitler in April 1940, the Greenlanders sought and obtained protection from the US under a treaty signed by the Danish ambassador in Washington. After the war ended, there was some dispute between Copenhagen and Washington over Greenland. President Truman offered $100 million to Denmark. The 1951 treaty gave the US extensive rights to have bases and more.
Though Trump has been highlighting the security angle, his argument does not hold water. His motivation is by and large real-estate-driven. Is there delicious irony in that Trump, who has consistently denied climate change, is availing himself of it to claim Greenland? According to the United States Geological Survey, Greenland holds 1.5 million metric tonnes of rare-earth elements, roughly comparable to what the US has, whereas China has about 44 million metric tonnes.
If Washington wants to invest in Greenland to extract the rare earths, neither Greenland nor Denmark will object. But such investment will be subject to terms to be agreed by Denmark and Greenland. Obviously, Trump, who might have plans to engage his family business in the matter, would prefer a free hand.
We in India should note that Trump’s keenness to get closer to Pakistan is partly because Islamabad has signed contracts with World Liberty Financial, a recently formed company with 60 per cent equity owned by the Trump family.
Has European diplomacy responded to Trump’s plans for Greenland adroitly? Hardly. What they have done so far is a study in flawed diplomacy.
Trump is unique as a US president and it is necessary to study him in depth. Let us call such a study Trumpology. Europeans have not invested in Trumpology. When Trump embarked on his tariff war in April last year, it never occurred to the European Union, with a GDP of $28 trillion, compared with $30 trillion of the US, to take the diplomatic initiative of talking with Canada, Mexico, Japan and others to build a united front. It is not being suggested that Brussels should have made a public announcement about forming a united front. Classical diplomacy provides for secret and discreet consultations to be followed by a public announcement, if needed, at the right time.
The EU and the UK were intimidated, and adopted a policy of pretending to be courtiers in King Trump’s court. The NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, 58, once called Trump “daddy”. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer arranged for a second royal invitation for the American president to the UK, which was rather unprecedented.
The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen went and met Trump to finalise a trade deal while he was playing golf in Scotland. The EU exports to the US will be charged at 15 per cent for cars, pharmaceuticals and others, whereas steel and aluminium will be charged at 50 per cent. According to Trump, there will be no duty on American exports. Additionally, the EU will invest $600 billion in the US and buy an extra $250 billion of energy from the US a year.
In short, the EU surrendered without a fight, though it had prepared a list of tariffs costing $107 billion on US exports in case there was no settlement. Europeans have now realised that they should stand up.
Coming to the fate of NATO, let us remind ourselves why it was established in 1949. Lord Ismay, a close aide to Mountbatten in India and the first secretary-general of NATO, said the idea was to “keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down”.
When the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact collapsed and eastern Europe adopted western democracy in 1990-91, NATO could have been dissolved and a European system of security based on cooperation of all states in Europe including Russia could and should have been seriously considered. When Gorbachev, as president of the Soviet Union, agreed to withdraw troops from East Germany so that Germany could be united, US secretary of state James Baker assured him on February 9, 1990 that NATO would not expand eastwards “not even an inch”.
Why did Washington and the rest of the west decide to dishonour the assurance? Was Russia under Boris Yeltsin posing a threat to Europe? No.
The most important reason for the expansion is that Americans had ignored the warning given by president Dwight Eisenhower, who was earlier the supreme commander of the allied forces in Europe during World War II. He had in his farewell address warned about the danger posed by the military-industrial complex.
What can stop Trump from taking over Greenland? He is not going to buy it as there is no seller. If Trump orders the Pentagon to take over Greenland, no external force can stop him. The key question is whether American democracy is able to self-correct itself as it celebrates its 250th anniversary. Only Congress and the supreme court can stop him. As of now we do not see any clear sign.
Trump has threatened that he will impose a 10 per cent tariff on countries opposed to his Greenland push, which will go up to 25 per cent from June 1. His intention is to complete the takeover on time to declare on July 4 that he has added more than 2 million sqkm to America and will do more for MAGA.
NATO will survive in a diminished form. Europeans who have demonised Putin have no option. The beginning of the end has started.
Post-Trump there is likely to be a change in Washington’s policy. But by then Europeans might have moved on with their ten-year plan for a European NATO.
Trump is heading towards his Waterloo in the mid-terms and he is scared of impeachment. He does not care for NATO. His only interest is to sell weapons to Europe.
The author is a retired diplomat.