Q/ How do you view the Russian attack on Ukraine?
For the first time since World War II, we are seeing a dangerous situation in Europe. It is an open war—whether Moscow calls it a special operation or war. A lot of people have been killed or wounded; millions have left Ukraine as refugees, mostly women and children.
Q/ Russia has security concerns about NATO expansion.
Putin says it is a concern for Russia, that they feel endangered by the steps of NATO and the military activity on the borders of Russia. But, Ukraine is no danger for Russia. Putin is accusing the west—that NATO may install military equipment, especially the most modern, and rockets which are only a few minutes away from Moscow. It is one of the explanations. In my opinion, this is all about Putin’s dream to restore a Soviet empire. He considers the [breakup of the USSR] as their biggest loss after WWII. In 2014, he captured part of Ukrainian territory—Crimea. Now, he has declared two Ukrainian territories as independent soil.
Q/ Ukraine plus NATO is the real concern for Russia.
Becoming a member of NATO is a very long way off. More difficult than becoming a member of the EU. Poland took over 10 years—we had to change 30,000 laws to adapt to the standards of the EU. It was an enormous task. Ukraine is in a much worse position than Poland was decades ago. You cannot be a member of NATO if you are in quarrel with your neighbour over Crimea.
Q/ But isn't NATO indirectly at war with Russia, with Ukraine as the battlefield?
No. NATO leaders like Joe Biden, Boris Johnson or Emmanuel Macron have made it clear. NATO is NATO. It will defend every inch of the territories of its members. Ukraine is not part of NATO. No NATO troops are there on Ukrainian soil; there is no no-fly zone over Ukraine.
Q/ The arms are from NATO.
Of course, that is another story. We remember well 2014—the takeover of Crimea by Russians. Look, after they became independent [of the USSR], Ukraine absolutely forgot the army or the needs of an army. They even transferred from Ukrainian soil their nuclear arms. They thought... their borders will be stable and untouchable. But Russia altered its position, saying that NATO was going to Eastern Europe.
Q/ How real is the threat to the Baltic States, or to countries like Poland?
It is a certain danger. Somehow, Russia’s present policy is not understandable. Many experts are struggling to understand the reasons (triggering) Putin. It is absolutely impossible to conquer Ukraine, or to install a puppet regime. They may try, but only after killing a lot many people. You cannot conquer Ukraine; you cannot govern through a puppet government.
Q/ But Putin may try the same with others, including Poland.
Perhaps not. First of all, it was a very strong declaration from the part of the US that the NATO will defend its members as per Article V.
When it comes to Poland, we need to look at history. We were conquered by Russians and Germans. Poland was divided for 130 years under the rule of Russia, Prussia and the Austrian Empire. So, we feel the danger. That is why we pressed so hard after independence in 1989, to join NATO or the EU. We are lucky that we succeeded; Ukraine didn't.
In the beginning, they (Ukraine) stressed the need to be closer to the western institutions. Unfortunately due to, let’s say, the political system they had adopted—oligarchy—they were not able to fulfil the demands of the west on political, economic, or legal demands for partnership with western Europe.
It was also not the will of the people [at that time]. Because when Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union, NATO was enemy number one. It was repeated millions of times in the mass media all over Soviet Russia for decades. So, in the back of the people's minds, NATO was something bad.
In the case of a threat from Putin, the west may try to provide Ukrainians with armaments, money, with different forms of assistance—except troops. We (Poland) have over 10,000 American soldiers on our soil, the same number in the Baltic States. Now, more are coming. So it true—what Biden said—we will defend every inch of NATO soil. Of course, we feel the danger, because we know the Russians.
Q/ Looking at the issues from the perspective of Ukrainians, they are continuously being denied a credible government.
Before the takeover of Crimea [by Russia], it was very strange. The government was very weak. There were a lot of pro-Russian factions. Of course, they are a considerable part of society, the Russian-speakers. It is a fact especially in eastern Ukraine. But the unfriendly act of grabbing their territory came as a shock to most of them. Then they tried to change almost everything. Earlier they surrendered to Russians—even a part of the military leadership in Ukraine changed sides. They said: ‘We are Russians; I am taking my rank of admiral or general in the Russian army instead of the Ukrainian army and so on.’
To rebuild the army was really difficult. But they succeeded. They had the support from the western countries, but not that openly. Nevertheless, they were able to rebuild the heart of the army. That is why they are showing extreme courage now, defending their homeland.
It is the change in the minds of the people. Ukrainians are fighting for their homeland for the first time in their history. They feel they have to defend their homeland.
Q/ Is the morale of the Russian forces getting affected?
There is an enormous gap between Russia and Ukraine. Yet, the Russians are losing ground. The united stance of the rest of Europe, plus the US and Canada, too, was unexpected. I cannot remember such an almost unanimous stand against Russia, which has a lot of supporters in western Europe. Russia is delivering to most of Europe's oil and gas. It is a problem now. You may blacklist Russia, but look at a country like Bulgaria - a member of NATO and EU. Without the gas from Russia, they can't survive.
But, Russia will pay a heavy price. They didn't imagine this. Iran collapsed after financial sanctions. I think it will be the same with Russia.
Q/ Has Russia reached a point of no return, but unable to advance?
We have to look at the history of Russia. It happened with leaders in the czarist period. They were crazy enough to start the war with dreams to conquer half of the world or the continent and they were removed by internal powers. In this case, not for now. Because Putin has been ruling Russia for 22 years and he has eliminated practically all possible enemies in the inner circle. The question is how in his mind he is able to judge the situation in a rational sense. If you are governing such a country with nuclear potential, for 22 years and everyone around you is declaring how fantastic you are, how clever you are and your decisions are perfect, something may change in your mind, in your mentality.
Russians will probably be there in Ukraine for some time. Silent and secret diplomacy is working. Not only the US, NATO, Ukraine and Russia, there is the China factor also. A larger conflict is against China's will. Their aim is to be number one in the next 20 years. They will try to restrain the Russians. Officially, China is supporting Russia with one hand, on the other hand Chinese banks are refusing loans to Russian businessmen. China will try to stop [the conflict] or offer mediation.
Q/ What kind of a solution is possible in your view?
Putin is frowned upon, but as a leader of such a potent country, he needs to save face. Otherwise he will be removed by his own people. [Perhaps they can agree to] Ukraine not becoming a part of NATO against some guarantees of security. But still there are two regions which were declared as independent from Ukraine plus Crimea. What to do with this is the greatest problem.
Q/ Can European countries do without Russian support and energy?
It is possible but it will take time and time is crucial. For Ukraine, and Europe as well. Because, we need other sources of gas delivery. Oil is less important than gas. Perhaps, Iran could be a source. You know they are close to an agreement with Iran. I also heard about the possibility of withdrawal of sanctions against Venezuela.
Fighting for pride: Ukrainian soldiers in Kyiv | AFP
Q/ Are financial sanctions a deterrent to Russia?
In a modern financial system, it consists of millions and millions of operations. Without internet access in the proper way, without proper communication you are absolutely lost.
Q/ Meanwhile, you are saddled with the problem of refugees.
Luckily, we are not alone. It is the decision of the EU to assist countries which are confronting the massive influx from Ukraine. It requires billions of euros. You have America and other countries which will be sharing this expense. We (Poland) are in a peculiar situation, because our economy cannot exist without Ukrainians. We had, before the war started, over a million-and-half Ukrainian workers. Ours is an economy of demand. We are looking for people to fill the empty places. That is why somehow this refugee crisis is a gift from God already.
If you are reading Polish newspapers you may see tens of thousands of offers for jobs for Ukrainian refugees. The government made a law which gives refugees a status which is similar to the Poles in a number of areas—like access to schools, to doctors and other services. Moreover, everyone who is hosting refugees will be paid an amount of 40 Polish zloty per day for one Ukrainian. So, it is about 1,200 Polish zloty monthly.
Q/ So, you are saying that Poland will be able to accommodate any number of Ukrainians?
Not all. But at least (five lakh to seven lakh) is possible. And the rest will be moved to other European countries.
Q/ Do you think other countries will also open their borders?
Yes, absolutely. See, the EU is ageing because of a lack of children. That is why Germans accepted so many refugees from the Middle East in 2015, because they needed people to work. Germany needed up to (three lakh) people. And there are differences between someone from deep inside Africa and someone from Ukraine.
Q/ There are already complaints of discrimination and racism?
There is this popular image of Muslim terrorists killing and bombing. It is there in my country as well. Contrary to it, Ukrainians are Europeans from eastern side.
Q/ So, you are justifying discrimination in the name of religion?
I cannot say it is specifically religion, because, in Europe, we have Muslims as well. In western European countries, there are over 25 million Muslims - in France, Germany and in UK.
Q/ You said no to migrants in 2015.
Yes, we said NO in Poland, but Germany did accept them. But, in Poland, it was not from the perspective of terrorism or religion. It was a question of political differences inside the country. Populist parties succeeded in convincing most of the people that refugees [from Middle East] are terrorists. It was political and not religious. Poland, like most normal European countries, is hospitable to foreigners. But, to my astonishment, there is an anti-migrants orientation; a political orientation. Of course, I am rejecting it, but it is a fact. Contrary to the Germans.
Q/ You mean the rightist propaganda succeeded?
Yes. Let's say, at times, rightist becomes quite normal. It is not a question of religion. First, it is a lack of understanding. We are living in a conservative environment - mostly Catholic people. As I remember, the Polish church was absolutely favourable to accepting refugees from Syria during the civil war. The church said we have 13,000 parishes in Poland, so let's accept one family of refugees. One family per parish of a few thousand is nothing, but the government rejected it.
Q/ But now, they are adopting the same formula?
Yes, perhaps the war is at our door now. It is not far away in the Middle East or Africa, which is away from our imagination. Now, we are seeing women and children crying, their losses and bombardment at our gates. Acceptance is absolutely overwhelming and all political parties are unanimous in this respect.