SINCE HE FIRST became president of Russia in the summer of 2000, Vladimir Putin has visited India nine times. But his 10th visit—December 4-5 for the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit—is his first after the conflict with Ukraine began on February 24, 2022. This visit exceeds past ones in terms of significance and impact in view of the strategic and military implications. Its scope has now expanded and new alignments have shaped up, contributing in a big way to the ongoing global geopolitical churn.
First, it is all about the optics, positioning and building a narrative. India shares a ‘special and privileged strategic partnership’ with Russia and a ‘comprehensive global strategic partnership’ with the US. Putin’s visit is an attempt to see in what ways the relationship with India is further enhanced.
India and Russia have traditionally enjoyed warm ties—the military collaboration being the high point. Even as India is trying to diversify the sourcing of weapons and is on a path of atmanirbharta in military production, at least 60 per cent of its weaponry—from fighter aircraft and naval platforms to artillery guns and small arms—continue to be of Russian origin. Of course, Russia’s slide in the Indian arms market has been made up by the US, France and Israel.
At a time when the US-led west is trying to corner Russia on Ukraine and also with the US pushing India to curb oil and energy purchases from Russia, a presidential visit to the world’s most populous country with a fast-growing economy and rising military might is also a not-so-subtle message to the US. “The visit is to demonstrate the proximity of India with Russia against the backdrop of increasing pressure on India by the US to side with it in the ongoing tussle with the Sino-Russian axis for extending their respective spheres of influence,” says Kumar Sanjay Singh, who teaches history in Delhi University. “A consolidation of the Indo-Russian trade in energy and military hardware is important for Russia to circumvent the western sanctions regime”. He adds that Putin wants to retain the Indian energy market as without it Russian investments in the north-south corridor may lose value.
Putin’s visit should also be seen against the backdrop of India’s policy of strategic autonomy, with only national interest being the guiding principle. Even the handshakes, embraces and personal chemistry between the Indian and Russian leaders will be something that the world will watch with attention—much like when Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘hug’ with Putin made for global headlines during the former’s Moscow visit in July 2024.
Second, with the Indian Air Force (IAF) facing a shortage of at least 200 fighter aircraft, the Modi-Putin talks will definitely explore means to shore up IAF’s depleting strength—be it in the upgrade of the Sukhoi-30 fighter fleet, which is the IAF mainstay, or in exploring a joint production of the fifth generation Sukhoi-57. The Russians have already assured technology transfer as far as the Su-57 is concerned. But as a top official in the foreign ministry put it, “Defence deals are not announced publicly.”
India will also request for expedited delivery of the ‘Triumf’ S-400 surface-to-air medium- and long-range anti-aircraft missile system. Once a bone of contention in the India-US ties, the powerful S-400 proved its worth in the recent India-Pakistan conflict. It was sought by India in 2015 and a deal was inked during Putin’s visit to India in October 2018. The deal is for delivery of five regiment sets, costing 40,000 crore; only two have been delivered till now.
Third, western sanctions after Russia’s foray into Ukraine had forced it to look for alternative markets and that was when India cashed in. In 2021, India’s crude oil imports from Russia stood at a mere 2 per cent; in June 2024, it accounted for 42 per cent. But India has cut back on oil from Russia following recent sanctions on Russian companies like Rosneft and Lukoil. Experts say oil imports from Russia may drop by half in coming months.
To be fair to India, the major worry is that of heavy trade tariffs on Indian exports to the US. This is a valid fear as the US is among the very few countries with which India has a favourable balance of trade. India-US trade negotiations are still on and outcomes of the Putin visit will definitely have a bearing on the trade talks.
Fourth, India and Russia, along with China, Brazil and South Africa, are key members of the growing BRICS grouping. An important agenda of BRICS is to curb the might of the dollar. The BRICS, in its declaration at the summit in Rio de Janeiro this year, had questioned the governance structure of the Bretton Woods Institutions—the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund—that paved the way for the dollarisation of the global economy. Without mentioning ‘de-dollarisation’, the BRICS declaration made a compelling case for the same.
That the Central Bank of Russia may open a representative office in Mumbai to ease rupee-rouble trade may be indicative of such intent, even as reports speak of a plan by the two countries to increase the total value of bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030 from the current $70 billion.
Fifth, the two nations are expected to strike a key deal on labour mobility, especially of skilled and semi-skilled manpower. It is well-known that Russia requires human resources to harvest its huge mineral and hydrocarbon potential from the rich deposits in Siberia, the far east and the Arctic region.
“Russia and India have been trying to establish a mechanism to enhance the presence of skilled Indian manpower in Russia,” says Major General Deepak Mehra (retd), who served as India’s defence attaché in Moscow. “A landmark bilateral labour mobility agreement could be expected, establishing a framework for legal migration, protecting workers’ rights and expanding the presence of skilled Indian manpower in Russia. This could be in fields as diverse as construction, textiles, engineering, farming and electronics.”