THIRD TERMS ARE rarely smooth sailing. Two previous prime ministers who lasted that long—Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi—experienced that first-hand. Now, Narendra Modi appears to be in the same boat.
Around 14 months into his third term, the prime minister has had a lot to tackle, but he is doing so head on. Modi has tried to ensure that his government and party have responded resolutely, even if there have been, at times, questions about the efficacy of the decisions.
While the Pahalgam terror attack was answered with Operation Sindoor, the US-imposed tariffs are being countered by a possible reworking of ties with China—the presence of Modi with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the SCO summit in Beijing makes for powerful optics.
On the political front, the challenges in the past year have been dealt with by turning the heat on opposition parties and their leaders. For instance, the Congress’s promise of a caste census if it won Bihar was deflated by Home Minister Amit Shah; he announced that it would be conducted along with the decennial census. The BJP’s U-turn on this issue showed flexibility, though it confused the party’s core voters.
The biggest headache for the party now is the likely fallout of the special intensive revision (SIR) of the voter list in Bihar, first announced in June. The opposition, shocked by the sudden move, accused the Election Commission of “disenfranchising voters” and helping the BJP.
The BJP, for its part, has framed SIR as an exercise to weed out illegal immigrants, but the opposition feels this has communal overtones. Over 65 lakh names were struck off the list as they were either dead, had multiple identities or had moved out of the state. The Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal made it an election issue in Bihar, and opposition leaders from West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, which go to the polls next year, joined in.
The Supreme Court, however, refused to stay the exercise.
Then came Rahul Gandhi’s ‘vote theft’ press conference on August 7. He had made similar claims after the Maharashtra assembly elections, but the latest allegations found more resonance. He said that there was manipulation of the voter list in the Mahadevapura assembly segment (of the Bangalore Central Lok Sabha constituency) in the 2024 national elections.
Within days, BJP leader and former Union minister Anurag Thakur held a press conference to accuse opposition leaders of winning elections through fake votes. This only added to doubts about the EC’s claims that the electoral process was fair and error-free. Realising that this might have been a self-goal, the BJP did not raise the issue again.
The leader of opposition has been relentless. His rallies with RJD chairman Tejashwi Yadav are gaining a lot of attention, spooking the NDA circles in Bihar—there is fear that the issue could snowball when coupled with anti-incumbency and other issues.
In response, the BJP has asked its ministers and leaders to go on the offensive. Citing last year’s Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, where the INDIA bloc did well, former Union minister Ravi Shankar Prasad asked: “Why were Rahul Gandhi and his allies happy then, and why are false allegations being made against the same (EC) now?”
BJP spokesperson Tuhin Sinha argued that the Congress-plus vote share in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections (40.6 per cent for the INDIA bloc) was its highest in 35 years (in 1989, it was 39.53 per cent, but the Congress was alone then). He added that the Congress had increased its vote share in the past two Lok Sabha elections.
“In case of SIR, despite their best efforts to scuttle it, they have not achieved any success in the Supreme Court,” he said. “The court validated the exercise and put checks and balances. It maintained the exercise was much needed and that it be done regularly. The court also questioned the role of the Congress BLAs (booth-level agents), saying they could have easily verified the 65 lakh voters.”
To distract from the allegations, Bihar Chief Minister and Janata Dal (United) president Nitish Kumar has recently flooded the electorate with sops.
The Centre, meanwhile, has announced a revision of GST rates, which will benefit the electorate. Notably, just before the Delhi assembly elections this year, the Centre had waived income tax for those earning up to 12 lakh a year. The BJP won the Delhi elections by a big margin.
In Bihar, the party’s strategy would be to puncture the opposition’s claims about vote theft. “Bihar is known to use respectful language even for younger people,” said Sinha. “But Rahul Gandhi’s terms for the prime minister, like vote chor, reek of disrespect. Like his earlier charges of chowkidar chor hai or even that the Constitution is in danger. The electorate will teach him a lesson in the Bihar polls.”
The BJP’s counter-offensive places Rahul at the centre. For instance, the party has brought up the fact that Ranju Devi, a Bihar resident who had told Rahul that her name was not on the voter list, later flipped and said that it was indeed there.
Some BJP leaders have described Rahul as “directionless”, “anti-Constitutional” and incapable of accepting electoral defeat. They say that, from questioning EVMs to alleging fraud in voter rolls, Gandhi seeks to discredit the system whenever the Congress loses.
Notably, the ruling alliance has also closed ranks. For instance, Union Minister and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) president Chirag Paswan has toned down his attack on Nitish. The BJP has shifted focus to seat sharing and finding the right candidate, as it feels that that would be the deciding factor.
The performance of Jan Suraaj leader Prashant Kishor would also be key. Kishor’s strategy is to attack only the Nitish government and the NDA, which could divide the opposition vote.
The worry for the BJP is that the vote theft allegations and SIR have become part of public conversation at the national level. And this has united the entire opposition—including the AAP and the Trinamool—which in turn has led to the selection of a joint candidate for the vice presidential elections.
Another step by the Centre—the constitutional amendment to remove the prime minister, chief ministers and ministers spending over 30 days in custody for criminal charges—was also aimed at sending a strong message to the opposition parties. Introduced on the penultimate day of the monsoon session of Parliament, the bill follows the Modi government’s strategy of responding strongly to political challenges, especially in its third term.