The BJP is on the verge of scoring a unique electoral hat-trick—securing a majority on its own three times in a row in the Lok Sabha polls. The party could well replicate its 2014 and 2019 successes, but as the political landscape evolves and the electoral battle intensifies in the run-up to the 2024 polls, it is welcoming new and former allies to bolster its position in key states. Ahead of the poll announcement, what is driving the BJP—pre-contest anxiety or a cogent strategy?
The BJP’s national leadership, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and party chief J.P. Nadda, has set an ambitious target: securing more than 50 per cent of votes. No party in India has been able to achieve that; even the Congress’s remarkable 404-seat victory in 1984 came with a vote share of less than 47 per cent.
In 2014, the BJP captured 31 per cent of votes; in 2019, it surged to 37 per cent. Notably, in 2019, as many as 224 of 303 victorious BJP candidates had vote shares of more than 50 per cent, highlighting the party’s growing popularity and poll management expertise.
The new target, though, is monumental. The BJP must significantly surpass its previous achievements, and expand its existing support base significantly, to reach the target.
That is why the political activity following the assembly polls victory in three Hindi heartland states has been so intense. Sample this: Modi and his cabinet colleagues are crisscrossing the country at breakneck pace to inaugurate new projects before the model code of conduct kicks in. Building the Ram Temple and the notification of the contentious rules under the Citizenship (Amendment) Act are aimed at the party’s core constituency.
If this was not enough, the BJP is accommodating new and former allies to its fold. Nitish Kumar is back as Bihar chief minister, after the BJP swallowed its pride and accepted him despite it having more seats in the assembly. Kumar had twice left the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, but political exigency saw the BJP welcoming him back. Pragmatism also prompted the BJP to announce an alliance with Chandrababu Naidu of the Telugu Desam Party, who had quit the NDA in 2018 calling Modi “a terrorist”. Naidu had even brought in a no-confidence motion against the Modi government in 2018.
Best laid plans: Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar (left) is back in the NDA fold, and Odisha Chief minister Naveen Patnaik is expected to follow suit | PTI
While the party’s ideology is “constant”, say BJP leaders, its political strategy is “dynamic”. The decision to join hands with Naidu was dictated by the ground situation, which apparently suggested that the Jagan Mohan Reddy government in Andhra Pradesh was facing anti-incumbency. The alliance in the southern state would also help the BJP shake off the tag of being a largely north Indian party. The BJP would contest six seats in Andhra Pradesh, while the TDP would field candidates in 17 seats and the Jana Sena in two. “The alliance is good, as there would be no division of anti-incumbency and opposition votes,” said TDP MP K. Ravindra Kumar.
The Modi government waited till the last moment to announce the CAA rules, anticipating the concerns of new allies with minority vote banks. Both Nitish Kumar and Naidu are expected to cushion any fresh resentment against the CAA, especially in states that have significant Muslim population.
Even if anti-CAA protests erupt, they could help the BJP consolidate its vote bank—as seen in Assam in 2021. The state had witnessed massive protests before the 2021 assembly polls, but the BJP won the elections and increased its vote share. In neighbouring West Bengal, too, the BJP’s vote share in the 2021 assembly elections increased by a massive 27 per cent.
Unlike in 2021, when the CAA was presented as a political solution to questions of citizenship, it is now presented as a policy solution for the displaced. “Last time, the opposition [created] political frenzy just to stir the violence without even reading the draft CAA rules,” said lawyer and BJP spokesperson Jaiveer Shergill. “These rules were brought in place to protect persecuted minorities and grant citizenship based on defined criteria. This time, the public is not swayed by propaganda. In fact, the acceptance of the CAA will be visible in the 2024 elections.”
The BJP’s southern outreach gained momentum after it lost a formidable partner in Tamil Nadu—the AIADMK, which did not approve of the BJP’s expansionist measures helmed by state party president K. Annamalai. The southern states have 130 Lok Sabha seats, and Tamil Nadu alone has 39 seats. T.T.V. Dhinakaran’s Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam has joined hands with the BJP, but without a strong ally like the AIADMK, the saffron party may draw a blank in the polls like it did last time.
To counter the loss of the AIADMK, the BJP has brought in a former alliance partner in the south—Janata Dal (Secular) in Karnataka. Even though the state BJP leadership felt that the alliance benefited the JD(S) more, the national leadership’s decision prevailed.
These southern alliances shake off the perception that the BJP is not acceptable in the south. The NDA, which started as a 24-member grouping in 1998, has more than 40 members now. “The opposition alliance is disintegrating,” said BJP general secretary Tarun Chugh. “The alliance partners are leaving Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi. But our family is constantly growing under Modi’s leadership.”
Shergill said the growing footprint of the NDA showed the mood of the nation. “Ours is a message of consistency, cohesion and fair communication, while the INDIA alliance is confusion, chaos and contradiction,” he said.
In the east, where the BJP is yet to form a government on its own, talk of bringing in the Biju Janata Dal, a former ally, has brightened its chances of an improved performance in Odisha. In 2019, the BJP had won eight of 21 Lok Sabha seats in the state.
The target of securing more than 400 seats for the NDA, and 370 for the BJP, is driving the expansion of the saffron alliance. Achieving the target would not be possible without making strategic alliances with smaller parties that have sizeable vote banks—such as Jayant Chaudhary’s Rashtriya Lok Dal, which has a Jat support base, and Om Prakash Rajbhar’s Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, which has OBC backing. In Tripura, the BJP is in alliance with Tipra Motha, a party championing the tribal cause.
A missing piece is the Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab. The SAD was one of the BJP’s oldest allies, and it had walked out of the NDA in 2020. It may make a comeback soon. The SAD-BJP alliance had served a national purpose—it was seen to have strengthened Sikh-Hindu unity after decades of militancy. The SAD’s support base is predominantly rural, while the BJP’s is predominantly urban. An alliance between the two parties can increase their poll prospects. In an indication that the two parties could come together, SAD chief Sukhbir Badal recently called for “Panthic and Punjabi unity”. This time, the BJP will ask the SAD for more than the two seats it had won in 2019.
In neighbouring Haryana, the BJP was doing a tight-rope walk for the past few months, as its ally Dushyant Chautala’s Jat-dominant Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) wanted two Lok Sabha seats. The BJP’s state leadership was against an alliance for the Lok Sabha polls, as the party had won all 10 seats last time. With a seat-sharing agreement failing to materialise, and complex caste calculus at play, BJP saw merit in breaking alliance as it had much more to gain. It sprang a surprise on March 12—Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar and his cabinet resigned. State party chief Nayan Singh Saini was sworn in, signallling that Khattar could head to the Lok Sabha.
Sources said the BJP would not have gained much by fighting elections with the JJP, as Jats had consolidated in favour of Congress in 2019. Now with the JJP forced to contest all seats in the Lok Sabha and assembly elections, Jat votes would divide among among three contenders, including the breakaway faction of the Chautala family. The BJP would gain from Punjabis and OBCs voting for it.
The BJP had wanted help from allies in 200 difficult seats in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Bihar and West Bengal. It has been successful in stitching up alliances in most of these states. The focus is also on the 161 seats the NDA had lost during the last polls. Since then, the BJP has been nurturing these seats through projects and frequent visits by Union ministers and party leaders.
Poll arithmetic and chemistry with allies continue to shape the BJP’s campaign. “The BJP looks very closely at arithmetic and chemistry to achieve its target of 400 and bring everybody under the common knit of progressive India,” said Shergill. “The NDA’s fulcrum is this chemistry and arithmetic, which is working in our favour.”