Giant LED screens at Sardar Chowk in Morbi beam public meetings of Kantilal Amrutiya, the BJP candidate from the Morbi constituency. Frame after frame showcases the high points of his public life, including his interventions from the 1979 Machchhu dam tragedy, the 2001 earthquake and the Covid-19 pandemic. Desert coolers keep the temperature pleasant while caterers serve party workers and guests. In a makeshift room, Amrutiya discusses poll strategy with his supporters, and leaders representing the paper and ceramic industries. He is reluctant to give an interview as he does not want to speak about the recent bridge collapse. After much cajoling, he agrees to an interview on condition that no questions will be asked about the tragedy.
Amrutiya, 60, is pitted against Jayanti Patel of the Congress and Pankaj Ransariya of the AAP. Choosing Amrutiya, a former MLA from Morbi, over Brijesh Mareja, the sitting Congress MLA who switched sides, is seen as a BJP masterstroke. But explaining the bridge collapse which happened on October 30 in which 135 people, including more than 50 children, died could prove to be a challenge. Amrutiya reached the accident spot within minutes and even jumped into the river to help the victims. While his efforts were much appreciated, he does not speak about the tragedy while campaigning, as he knows that it could hurt his chances.
Kishor Solanki, 47, lost three extended family members in the tragedy, all aged between 16 and 20. “We have been supporting the BJP, hoping for further action. I just returned from Union Minister Parshottam Rupala’s meeting. But I know nothing will happen,” he said. Halima Kumbhar, who lost her married daughter and her family members, said she was angry and did not know what to do. “The ones who have gone will never return,” she said.
Dr Pravin Barasara and his family survived the tragedy because of sheer luck. They got delayed as Barasara’s bike broke down and then they were caught in traffic. “I am a doctor. I have seen many tragedies, but nothing like this before,” said the ayurvedic practitioner. “I could not sleep for two days.”
The Morbi tragedy happened at an inopportune moment for the BJP. It actually led to a brief delay in announcing the poll dates. Despite the anger and resentment about the tragedy, however, many people think that it is unlikely to have much of an impact on the polls. Lalji Parmar, a 70-year-old paan shop owner near the bridge, said people’s memories were short. “Unless you have lost a loved one, you do not care much,” he said.
Unconventional wisdom: Lalit Kagathara, Congress candidate from Tankara, says Rahul Gandhi’s absence is unlikely to hurt the party | Janak Patel
Morbi is part of the politically significant Saurashtra region and the opposition is trying to use the bridge collapse issue against the government. The BJP, however, is confident that with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, other Union ministers and chief ministers from BJP-ruled states painting a picture of development, it will do well in the region and also across Gujarat. To prevent any last-minute hiccups, party leaders are talking up issues favoured by their hindutva base, such as the Gujarat riots.
Saurashtra has 48 seats in the 182-member assembly and the BJP is expected to improve its tally despite anti-incumbency. In 2017, the Congress won 28, the BJP 19 and the NCP one. This time, the AAP could gain substantially, and the number of votes it polls may well make or break the fortunes of the BJP and the Congress.
Saurashtra has remained politically significant right from the days of Mahatma Gandhi. The region, which had over 200 rajwadas (princely rulers), merged with the Bombay state in 1956, and then Gujarat and Maharashtra were formed in 1960. The region was also the hub of RSS activities, with Chimanbhai Shukla, the Maniar family and Keshubhai Patel hailing from the region, said columnist Jay Vasavda. “There is anger and there are undercurrents in the region, but nobody has been able to channelise it. For the BJP, Modi remains the ‘X’ factor,” he said. In his view, one key difference this time is that social media campaigns have not remained one-sided.
Kantilal Amrutiya | Janak Patel
In the absence of any wave, like the Patidar agitation that helped the Congress in 2017, there are not many major issues that people are openly talking about. The AAP has raised the issue of question paper leaks of various examinations and the alleged poor quality of education. Their leaders, including Arvind Kejriwal, have been getting good response.
On the other hand, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi had just one public meeting in the region. In fact, Rahul had only one other meeting in entire south Gujarat. More campaign visits are said to be unlikely. Lalit Kagathara, the Congress candidate from Tankara, said it was good that Rahul is keeping away. “Had he come more often, Modi would have upped the hindutva and terrorism planks, using him,” said Kagathara. In Rahul’s absence, the Congress campaign is headlined by its newly elected president Mallikarjun Kharge. In Ahmedabad and south Gujarat, he questioned the unease in the BJP and asked why Modi was campaigning from “ward to ward”, leaving all his national and international engagements behind. The Congress feels that the BJP has no local leadership capable of handling the campaign.
Former chief minister Vijay Rupani, however, said the Congress was fighting for its existence and was not showing any fighting spirit, like it did in 2017. Rupani spoke with THE WEEK after addressing a campaign event for Dr Darshita Shah, BJP candidate from Rajkot (West), the seat from which he “opted out”. In the past, this high profile seat has seen Modi winning his first ever election after becoming chief minister in 2001 and former Karnataka governor Vajubhai Vala winning six times.
A pathologist by profession, Shah speaks about her work as deputy mayor and seeks votes in the name of Modi. “It is a high profile seat. I do not take my opponents lightly. I also promise to tackle local issues and improve Rajkot’s position when it comes to cleanliness,” she said. In Rajkot (East), the BJP has fielded former mayor Uday Kangad, who is pitted against Indranil Rajyaguru of the Congress. Rajyaguru, who spent a few months in the AAP, now calls Kejriwal’s party the BJP’s ‘B’ team. He said his margin of victory would be better than what he managed in 2012. In 2017, he lost to Rupani from Rajkot (West). “Ninety-nine per cent of the Sardar Sarovar dam work was done by the Congress,” he said. “Gujarat was good in education and now the BJP is privatising schools.”
In the rural pockets, the Congress still has some hold, but it remains to be seen whether it can stop anti-BJP votes from going to the AAP. In a few seats, AAP candidates are likely to win a few thousand votes, which could affect the final results, especially in smaller constituencies. Khambhalia in Dwarka district is one seat that the AAP is confident of winning. Here, the party’s chief ministerial face Isudan Gadhvi is locked in a three-cornered fight against sitting MLA Vikram Madam of the Congress and Mulubhai Bera of the BJP.
The BJP, which is always in election mode, is not taking anything lightly, although its leaders and workers are visibly confident. “The Congress is finished and the AAP is a new entrant,” said Rupani. “The challenge before us is to ensure that our workers do not become overconfident.”